Researchers from a British university warn that by the end of this century, more than two thirds of temperate rainforests worldwide could vanish as climate change accelerates. The finding underscores how vulnerable these cool, moist forests are to warming trends, shifting rainfall patterns, and more extreme weather. It also emphasizes the urgency of cutting greenhouse gas emissions and taking proactive steps to protect the remaining forests and the ecosystems they sustain.
Temperate rainforests are defined by a cool, wet climate and a mix of coniferous and broadleaf trees. They thread through regions across North, Central, and South America, Europe and Asia, Africa, Southeast Asia, and parts of Oceania. Notable belts include forests near the shores and highlands of the Pacific, landscapes around Lake Baikal, and coastal zones near the Okhotsk, Caspian, and Black Sea areas. These forests flourish where rainfall is ample and temperatures stay relatively moderate, supporting tall trees, lush understories, and intricate fungal and moss networks that feed the entire ecosystem.
Despite occupying roughly 1% of the world’s total forest area, temperate rainforests punch above their weight in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage, and water regulation. They harbor unique plants and animals, sustain complex food webs, and contribute to regional climate stability. The soils and living matter in these forests store carbon for centuries, while the steady rainfall helps maintain watersheds that communities depend on for drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower. They also function as living classrooms of ecological history, where centuries of growth are visible in ancient trunks and rich forest floor communities.
Model projections describe a stark future under unmitigated climate warming. In the most pessimistic scenarios, about 68% of temperate forests could disappear by 2100, with some regions experiencing losses approaching 90% of their extent. If the pace of warming slows and emissions are reduced substantially, losses could be limited to around 9%. The outcome will vary by location, driven by local climate patterns, the frequency of droughts, fire risk, and the capacity for restoration and adaptation in each landscape. The forecasted changes highlight a broad spectrum of risks across different continents and coastlines.
Researchers stress that it is not too late to protect the world’s temperate rainforests if meaningful action is taken now. The work aims to identify areas most vulnerable to warming and those with the greatest potential for restoration, guiding conservation planning and policy decisions. It reinforces the idea that reducing emissions, creating habitat corridors, restricting destructive logging, and supporting forest restoration and indigenous stewardship can shift outcomes toward preservation. Separately, analyses have also warned about threats to other major forest systems, such as the Amazon, from drought and fires as climate pressures mount.