State beat last year the record between those collected and those foreseen in the Budgets, thanks to economic dynamism according to the government, inflation data, and opposition commentary. The estimated amount exceeded 23,000 million and reached 255,463 million euros, representing a 14.4% rise from the 2021 figure. These numbers underscore a year of stronger revenue performance amid a complex macro backdrop and set the stage for ongoing fiscal assessments.
There hasn’t been a positive gap of this magnitude in the entire historical series, at least since the mid-1990s. This progress contrasts with the two hardest years, 2008 and 2009, when revenue fell well short of expectations amid the Financial Crisis, with losses of 30,082 and 45,561 million, respectively, relative to the budgeted figures under the socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Subsequent downward divergences characterized the early years of Mariano Rajoy’s administration, until the present moment, following two budget extensions in 2021 and 2022, and reflecting a pattern seen in the late 1990s under José María Aznar and Zapatero.
Last year’s improvement followed a 15.1% year-over-year increase, and it set another record compared to the pandemic year (2020) when activity was largely paralyzed. The Ministry of Finance, in its annual collection report, attributes the rise in income to stronger consumption, higher wages and pensions, and robust corporate profits, tied to greater overall economic dynamism. Earlier this year, Secretary of State for the Treasury Jesús Gascón estimated in Congress that the collection surpassed the forecast by 10,000 million.
GDP grew by 5.5% last year, matching 2021’s growth, even as inflation rose amid the war in Ukraine and other price pressures. Some commentators point to rising prices and gaps in taxation as factors that might propel continued collection growth. The government, however, presents a different view in its stability program update for 2023-2026 submitted to Brussels, noting an increased tax burden, with the share of taxes in wealth production rising from 38.7% in 2022 to 39.7% in 2023.
From the government’s perspective, the evolution of collections is explained by the dynamic development of nominal GDP, reflecting both real factors and price movements, with a GDP deflator projected at around 4% but expected to slow to below 2% later in the projection horizon.
The document emphasizes that analysis of tax revenue since 2000 shows revenues growing faster than the economy itself even during periods of negative inflation. While inflation contributes to higher tax receipts, the main driver of positive or negative changes in fiscal aggregates is the evolution of GDP rather than consumer price changes.
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In a congressional appearance last fall, Christina Herrero, head of the Independent Accountability Authority (Airef), noted that nearly half of the 2022 growth in collections is due to inflation, with estimates increasing to about three-quarters for the current year. A study by EsadecPol indicates that inflation disproportionately affects taxpayers in the 15,000 to 20,000 euro income bracket, highlighting how price dynamics interact with tax bases.
In 2022, the tax base for basic taxes rose by 13.1%, a result shaped partly by price increases. However, these were not the sole drivers of the rise in the tax base and overall receipts.
According to the tax agency, less than 5 percentage points of the increase in collections came from price rises above normal levels, even though the CPI climbed by about 8.4% on average during the year. Consumer prices affect only a portion of income, primarily VAT on consumption, and their impact on collections is mitigated by policy choices such as reduced rates for electricity and gas usage.
Regarding salaries and pensions, increases are more tied to the prior year’s prices and to measures like the hydrocarbon tax that link revenue to physical consumption. The price effect is negative. Moreover, the rise in revenues was tempered by electricity price relief measures that removed 7,200 million from collections and accelerated tax refunds. Officials note that without these two factors, revenue growth would have been about 3.2 percentage points higher.
These observations align with a broader narrative about fiscal stability, tax policy effects, and the ongoing assessment of how price dynamics, consumption patterns, and policy choices shape annual revenue outcomes. The discussion continues as authorities and analysts monitor the interaction of inflation, GDP growth, and sector-specific taxes in the years ahead.