Deputy Head of IKI RAS Department, a solar wind expert, spoke with the Public News Service about the Sun’s recent activity. He notes that the star has just unleashed the most powerful explosion seen in six years, and he explains that a rise in solar activity makes such events less surprising. The current period of heightened solar behavior aligns with the natural 11 year cycle of the Sun, during which the magnetic poles slowly reverse and solar phenomena intensify. While the flares themselves do not pose an immediate danger to most people, the magnetic storms they can trigger are the real focus for researchers and planners on Earth.
The expert stresses that the peak of solar activity has not yet passed. He cautions that activity could climb further or hold at elevated levels, meaning that additional solar flares are likely on the horizon. This perspective reflects a broader understanding of the solar cycle and its impact on space weather, where periods of quiet can be punctuated by sudden, intense eruptions from the Sun. The magnetic storms produced by these events are what astronomers watch most closely, as they have the potential to affect technology and power systems on Earth, even if the flares themselves do not directly threaten human health.
According to observations, the Sun is in a phase of its 11 year cycle as the poles migrate and the solar magnetic field reconfigures itself. This transition is associated with increased solar activity, including a higher frequency of energetic particles and bright flashes across a wide range of wavelengths. The solitary factor that tends to pose a tangible risk for humanity is the occurrence of geomagnetic storms when the Sun releases charged particles that interact with Earth’s magnetosphere, potentially disturbing satellites and electrical grids. Such storms require careful forecasting and preparedness across multiple sectors.
On the evening of December 14, forecasters from the Phobos meteorological center recorded an exceptionally strong solar flare, rated X2.8 in magnitude. Experts noted that an event of this strength had not been observed since 2017, underscoring the ongoing variability of solar activity and the capacity for significant energy release even within a single solar cycle. The size and timing of flares like this one are critical for understanding space weather and for issuing appropriate advisories to protect technology and infrastructure on Earth.
Forecasters anticipate that geomagnetic disturbances associated with such flares may become noticeable in the days that follow. Meteorologists project that signs of geomagnetic effects could emerge over the weekend, influencing high latitude regions first and potentially propagating to other areas depending on the solar wind’s structure. The presence of these disturbances serves as a reminder of the dynamic relationship between the Sun and our planet and the need for ongoing monitoring, analysis, and communication between scientific teams and the public.
Earlier astronomers had established that the solar activity peak is expected to occur in the early part of the current cycle, with ongoing assessments refining the exact timing. This forecasting relies on a combination of solar observation data, magnetic field measurements, and space weather modeling that has evolved significantly in recent years. As researchers continue to track the Sun’s behavior, they emphasize the importance of preparedness and the role of space weather forecasting in mitigating potential impacts on aviation, satellite operations, and power networks. This evolving knowledge helps scientists, engineers, and policymakers work together to minimize disruption while gaining a clearer understanding of the Sun’s influence on everyday life.