The region around Sudan and its strategic crossroads
There is more than one valid way to identify Sudan’s location. It stands as the third largest country on the continent and sits at a pivotal intersection of Africa, serving as a crossroads for political, cultural, and economic activity as well as population movements. This geostrategic position broadens the area at risk from the current surge in violence inside Sudan.
In recent years, five of Sudan’s seven neighboring states have faced internal conflicts or political instability—Ethiopia, Chad, the Central African Republic, Libya, and South Sudan. This nearby volatility makes the conflict between generals Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo a matter of regional concern for politics, migration, and energy, extending well beyond Sudan’s borders.
The migration crisis in Chad and Libya
“We are already witnessing the regional spread of conflict, particularly in terms of people moving,” notes Ahmed Soliman, a researcher who studies the Horn of Africa for Chatham House. Most regional migration is intra-regional, with refugees heading to neighboring countries. Chad, already hosting more than 400,000 Sudanese and having closed its borders when violence erupted, faces mounting stress on services and resources, a risk echoed by reports from the UN Refugee Agency.
Soliman adds that Sudan has long hosted neighbors seeking refuge, describing a circular migration pattern that routes movement from East Africa to Europe via Libya. He argues that the main change will be the cost of migrating and that a total state collapse in Sudan could trigger a large-scale migration with consequences for Europe, though he cautions that such a collapse has not yet occurred. With a population of about 47 million, Sudan’s potential impact on regional and international dynamics would be substantial, especially at the confluence of the Arab world, the Indian Ocean, and the Mediterranean, underscoring Sudan’s role as a critical commercial artery between Asia and Europe, as highlighted by a former U.S. envoy to the Horn of Africa.
The risk to South Sudan’s oil
South Sudan currently produces roughly 150,000 to 170,000 barrels of oil per day, a figure that places it well above its northern neighbor. Yet observers emphasize that South Sudan relies on Sudan to export its crude. The Red Sea port of Port Sudan serves as an export route through Khartoum, the epicenter of the fighting that began in mid-April. This dependency heightens the financial stakes for both sides in the Sudanese conflict and raises concerns about supply continuity for regional markets.
Analysts argue that although these nations are not major oil exporters to Asia, any disruption could ripple through the oil market. For now production remains steady, but conditions could shift quickly if the conflict deepens and both sides pursue competing claims within the country. This anticipates a fragile balance where energy geopolitics intersect with regional security and economic interests.
Egypt’s focus on the Ethiopian dam
The Nile remains a core national priority for Egypt, which fears impacts on water access as the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam evolves. The presence of Sudanese refugees amid the broader regional conflict has added layers to diplomatic discussions with Ethiopia. Egypt views control over river flow as essential to its own security, while Sudan is seen as a key ally in the broader dispute over dam management on the Blue Nile, a concern that has intensified as regional dynamics shift.
Experts warn that the ongoing conflict could lead to new phases of diplomatic tension and policy instability. They also point to a closer military relationship between Cairo and Khartoum, including personal ties between leaders and the shared border, which may complicate efforts to reach consensus on dam operations and downstream water rights.