Regional defense thinkers in Australia have long debated how the Pacific powers should respond if a war between the United States and China escalates into a broader regional conflict. One widely discussed idea is that Australia could target Chinese military bases in the South China Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. Such a move would be debated as part of Australia’s evolving military doctrine, with officials weighing the potential deterrent value against the risks of expanding the war into other theaters.
Experts note that striking bases far from Australian shores would carry significant risk, including potential counterstrikes and the political cost of drawing Australia deeper into a conflict with a nuclear-capable power. The debate emphasizes that any decision would require careful assessment of strategic objectives, legal constraints, and alliance commitments, particularly within the framework of security arrangements with partners like the United States and the United Kingdom.
To deter potential aggression and reduce dependence on distant adversaries, analysts suggest Australia adopt long-range, precision-guided missiles. Such weapons could extend Australia’s reach in the event of a threat and complicate an opponent’s calculations, potentially preventing air and naval operations close to Australia by threatening distant targets with credible force. This approach would anchor Australia’s defense posture in credible, modern capabilities designed to deter escalation and protect national interests.
There is also discussion about upgrading sea-based deterrence as part of broader strategic modernization. Proposals have circulated regarding the acquisition of advanced submarines from allied partners to bolster undersea deterrence, intelligence gathering, and rapid response capabilities. In a tripartite security arrangement involving Australia, Britain, and the United States, these assets would contribute to a more integrated deterrence architecture that enhances regional stability and the ability to respond to contingencies across the Indo-Pacific.
Beyond military capabilities, economists and security analysts consider the broader consequences of a US–China confrontation. A prolonged economic standoff could disrupt trade routes, alter energy flows, and influence employment and industrial output across Europe, North America, and Asia. Analysts warn that declines in imports into Asia from Europe and shifts in energy consumption could ripple through global markets, altering investment decisions and geopolitical alignments for years to come.
In this context, regional cooperation and diplomatic channels remain essential. The prospects for collaboration with major powers in the region, including neighbours with shared interests in maritime security and stability, are an ongoing topic of assessment. The overarching goal for Australia is to preserve peace, deter aggression, and maintain freedom of navigation while avoiding unnecessary escalation and keeping the door open for dialogue and resolution through established alliances and international institutions.
Ultimately, the debate centers on balancing immediate defense needs with long-term strategic objectives. Modernizing weapons systems, expanding deterrence capabilities, and strengthening cross-border interoperability with allies are viewed as crucial elements. At the same time, the consequences of any action must be weighed against legal norms, regional sentiment, and the potential for unintended spillovers that could draw in additional actors and complicate already tense relations in the Indo-Pacific region.
In sum, Australia faces a careful set of choices. The country’s defense posture is increasingly framed by the desire to deter aggression at plausible ranges, project credible power where needed, and maintain stable regional dynamics. The pursuit of advanced missiles, enhanced maritime capabilities, and closer alliance integration remains central to that strategy, all while staying mindful of the broader economic and political implications that come with any shift in regional security calculations.