These are challenging times for democracy. The combined shocks of a global epidemic, geopolitical aggression such as the invasion of Ukraine, widespread inflation, and rising political polarization in parts of the world have triggered concerns about the ability of any single system to safeguard health, respect for citizens, and fundamental freedoms. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), based in Stockholm, is preparing to publish the State of Democracy Global Report (GSoD) this Wednesday.
International IDEA, an intergovernmental organization that has tracked the democratic performance of 173 countries since 1975, presents a sobering picture. The report highlights a downturn in democratic quality over the past five years, with many democracies performing no better than they did in 1990, despite new and ongoing challenges such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine which have destabilized Europe and the wider world.
Yet the fragility of a democratic system is not solely tied to those events. Alberto Fernández Gibaja, quoted in El Periódico de Catalunya, explains that erosion began well before the current crises. The study identifies gradual losses in areas like judicial independence, media freedom, and the integrity of electoral processes, all pointing to weakening the rule of law. Recession, even in highly developed democracies, is cited as another factor that slows or reverses political progress.
“Death by a Thousand Cuts”
Democracy, the authors say, is not typically dying from a single catastrophe but through subtle, ongoing erosions in its structure. The pandemic, the cost of living crisis, and the situation in Ukraine are among the factors that contribute to this slow decline. Though there are occasional bright spots, the overall trend signals a danger of losing quality of life and civic resilience through small, accumulating blows.
The GSoD dataset highlights patterns of drift toward more authoritarian governance in several regions. Between 2016 and 2021, a number of countries shifted toward higher levels of autocracy, while others regressed. In total, fifty-two democracies showed some erosion compared with a decade earlier, and fifty percent of non-democratic states experienced sharper oppression. The year 2021 is marked as particularly difficult, with two democracies recorded as having fallen from the ranks.
Among the states experiencing pronounced backsliding, Brazil, El Salvador, Hungary, and Poland show notable declines, with India, Mauritius, and the United States described as undergoing moderate declines. In these cases, leaders have tended to weaken institutions from within, challenging the checks and balances that sustain free societies. The report notes episodes where contesting electoral results or undermining press freedom and minority rights were used as tactics, underlining the importance of protecting independent institutions as a safeguard against democratic erosion.
Citizen discontent
A second warning light comes from public attitudes toward democracy. The World Values Survey, cited in the GSoD, shows fluctuating levels of public trust and expectation. In some years, a growing share of people defended the idea that leaders can govern without full parliamentary oversight or electoral scrutiny. By 2021, those who supported such arrangements rose, signaling a reallocating of legitimacy away from traditional democratic procedures.
Faced with persistent economic stress, Alberto Fernández Gibaja offers a pragmatic explanation: long-running economic challenges erode faith in political systems even when macroeconomic indicators show improvement. Voters perceive scant relief on the ground and worry about the future, fostering polarization and a sense that political solutions are out of reach. In this climate, populist rhetoric often appears as a tempting shortcut, even though it rarely delivers durable results.
Taken together, these indicators lead International IDEA to conclude that the current drift may presage a new, volatile equilibrium in global politics. The outlook is uncertain, and the report describes it as a warning sign for the stability of democratic governance.
Spain as a case study: civil society participation and judiciary renewal
According to International IDEA’s classification, Spain displays an average level of democratic performance, closely tracking higher benchmarks seen in nations like Norway and Sweden. Still, there is room to strengthen civil society engagement, as noted by Alberto Fernández Gibaja, co-author of the Global Report on the State of Democracy. The study also points to Turkey as a country that has progressed in recent years, particularly in anti-corruption efforts and judicial independence. Fernández cautions that the renewal process for Spain’s General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) remains a critical issue, emphasizing that reforms must occur without compromising judicial independence.