The region spanning Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan shares numerous similarities. All embrace the Muslim faith and a civil tradition, and each sits along corridors linking East and West. Both Moscow and Beijing aim to exert influence for their own reasons. For Russia, the area holds historical significance as a former Soviet space, making it strategically valuable. China, meanwhile, attaches importance to the region because of energy resources and its privileged location along what Beijing envisions as a modern low‑carbon trade route. The New Silk Road project underscores this ambition.
Although Russia and China are competitors in Central Asia, they pursue their objectives with different approaches. Independent researcher Fran Olmos, who focuses on Central Asia, often recalls a familiar saying about their roles: Russia as the stern soldier of Central Asia and China as the patient banker. Official Chinese sources indicate a remarkable surge in trade with Central Asian countries over the past three decades, estimated at around 100 times higher than before. The energy trade continues to be a core pillar, with gas and oil forming the backbone of exchanges, while Chinese partners supply technology, automobiles and other manufactured goods. In several cases, for example Uzbekistan, Beijing has moved past Moscow in balancing trade with the region.
The recent Russian aggression against Ukraine has unsettled Central Asian states, heightening caution in places like Kazakhstan, home to a sizable ethnically Russian community in the north and to pro‑Kremlin voices that warn of potential spillover effects. Yet Olmos notes that the region still views its relationship with Moscow as a stable economic partner. Russia’s soft power remains significant, even as Chinese economic activities create a growing presence. Alongside this influence, concerns persist about a degree of sinophobia in the stans. Analysts highlight that while Chinese infrastructure fosters connectivity, some projects appear to offer limited immediate benefits for local economies and have coincided with a rise in cryptocurrency activity tied to users in China.
Stability in Central Asia
Security remains a shared priority for both powers in the region. Russia positions itself as a guarantor of stability, linking its role to the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the stationing of military bases within Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Its deep economic ties with these states and the important Central Asian diaspora in Russia translate into ongoing political influence. Observers point to the Eurasian Union and CSTO as indicators of Moscow’s strategic footprint.
Turning to China, Olmos notes that Beijing’s main concern centers on its own internal conditions. The current framework includes a modest base presence in Tajikistan, and analysts like Zigor Aldama observe that Beijing can leverage the regional dynamics to secure energy supplies and to portray itself as a reliable partner amid the wider disarray caused by the war in Ukraine. There is also attention on how these dynamics might enable Beijing to fill any strategic gaps Russia could leave in Central Asia. At the same time, it is clear that Central Asian countries are not unified in their stance on several politically sensitive issues. Democratic development and human rights records vary across the region, with Kyrgyzstan often singled out as the only country showing comparatively higher levels of political openness, though it has faced recent setbacks.”