Official statistics are awaited from the Ministry of Housing and the National Institute of Statistics. Grids and real estate portals have already published their reports. How much did house prices rise in Spain last year? According to Tinsa, homes are expected to appreciate by an average of 4.1 percent in 2023, while Gesvalt projects a more modest 2.1 percent. Idealista forecasts an 8.15 percent increase, and Fotocasa anticipates about 7.4 percent.
The market consensus after strong rises in 2021 and 2022 points to a period of stabilization and growth that is more moderate when viewed against historical trends. In recent months, gains have slowed and movement is gradually approaching zero.
Even with national statistics, the housing market in Spain is nuanced and responds to diverse realities. Tourism, entrepreneurship, and city size all shape outcomes. For instance, coastal regions saw price growth slow down more gradually than the national average, while cities such as Valencia, Almería, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and Málaga led the increases.
What will happen in 2024?
Forecasts from industry experts are generally positive. The mismatch between housing supply and demand in employment hubs and regions with strong economic activity sustains price levels even if demand ebbs. This dynamic is considered moderate.
Tinsa research director Cristina Arias notes that market segments with higher buying power, such as new construction or vacation properties, tend to show more durable performance.
José Antonio Muro, managing director of Grupo Tecnitasa, explains that location matters. There are clear differences between areas with very strong demand and those with weak demand. In the new construction sector, major centers like Madrid, Malaga, and San Sebastián experience intense pressure, while inland regions such as certain provinces of Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla y León, or Extremadura show notably weaker demand.
Judit Montoriol, chief economist at CaixaBank Research, adds that the continued consolidation of tourism and rising urbanization will draw people to tourist zones and dynamic cities, suggesting growth in these markets. Fotocasa spokesperson Maria Matos also suggests declines in less populated areas and within regions such as Extremadura or Castilla-La Mancha.
On the other hand, Germán Pérez Barrio, president of UVE Valoraciones, suggests that major cities like Madrid, Barcelona, Seville, and Zaragoza, along with the Basque Country, may see prices stay stable or fall. He notes the expectation of price increases on the coast, where many purchases are cash-driven and less affected by rising interest rates, particularly among foreign buyers. Málaga, Alicante, Girona, the Balearic Islands, and the Canary Islands are flagged as likely to see price rises. In cities with large urban and tourist components such as Valencia, Murcia, Granada, and Castellón, the growth trajectory should lie between the two extremes. Finally, prices in other regions could remain flat or decline due to an excess of empty housing.
Juan Galo-Macià, CEO of Engel & Völkers in Spain, highlights a continuing trend toward population shifts to areas with more competitive prices. This movement affects both major cities and smaller urban centers. The shift includes a dual pattern: residents moving to homes a short distance from city centers and people seeking more affordable neighborhoods within cities themselves.