House price dynamics in Spain are shifting after a period of rising rates that many predicted would continue to temper the market. A recent housing market report suggests this trend could reverse as we move into the next year, signaling a moderation rather than a continued surge in prices.
The Pisos.com real estate portal released findings indicating that price growth for properties listed for sale is likely to remain modest through 2024. The forecast calls for about a 2% rise in sales, down from an estimated 6% growth this year, while rental prices are expected to edge up by around 1%. These figures imply a softer price trajectory across both sales and rent in the near term.
Ferran Font, the Director of Research at Pisos.com, noted that it remains unclear whether movements in interest rates will stabilize or trend downward in the coming months. His assessment emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the broader rate environment and its impact on housing demand and affordability.
A key concern highlighted by Font is the ongoing shortage of new construction materials, which constrains supply in the market. He also pointed out that while strong demand supports prices, the margin of negotiation between buyers and sellers is widening, which could ease price pressure over time.
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In the rental segment, Font described significant imbalances between supply and demand, driven in part by buyers facing barriers to purchasing. A notable portion of demand is shifting toward rental options, as access to home ownership remains restricted for many. This dynamic is expected to reduce rental prices in some regions over the coming year as markets adjust.
He also noted that a newly introduced housing law may push some properties out of the traditional rental market and into temporary, tourist, or room-sharing arrangements. This shift could further influence rental availability and pricing patterns in coastal and urban areas.
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Font presented projections indicating that the total number of housing transactions for the year could finish around 584,545 operations, a figure about 10% below the previous year. In 2024, sales are expected to decline further by roughly 4%, reaching approximately 561,163 transactions.
On the mortgage front, the expert anticipates a continued downward trend in signing activity, with year-end 2023 signatures around 379,954 and a drop to about 336,698 in 2024, reflecting an 11% decrease.
Pisos.com’s forecast also calls for 115,458 new construction visas in 2023 and 116,613 in 2024. While these numbers stay above minimums, they fall short of meeting the overall housing demand in Spain, underscoring a persistent supply gap that policymakers and developers will need to address.