Spain faces a housing imbalance, with real needs differing by region
New insights drawn from the 2021 census data of the National Institute of Statistics show a country with uneven housing dynamics. While several regions hold a surplus, 13 provinces face a shortage. In total, about 327,000 homes are required to close the gap, even as other areas maintain a buffer of roughly 433,000 units. This pattern confirms a patchwork of local pressures rather than a single national trend. The report, produced by UVE Valuations, emphasizes that scarcity is concentrated in specific locales rather than spread uniformly across the nation. The study’s author, Germán Pérez Barrio, highlighted this during a media briefing, noting that the housing shortage is highly localized.
Demand is most intense along the metropolitan corridors surrounding Spain’s largest cities and in regions with strong tourism activity. Madrid presents the largest deficit, needing about 107,000 homes — roughly 3.4% of its existing stock. Other high-need areas include Barcelona with nearly 85,000 needed units, Valencia with around 64,500, Palma de Mallorca at 32,600, Murcia with 25,000, and Málaga with 16,000. In these regions, shortages translate into a larger share of the total housing stock required. Palma accounts for about 8.8% of its current stock, Murcia for about 8.45%, and Valencia around 7%. Barrio notes that adding new housing in these zones could help moderate price pressures driven by limited availability.
Among the provinces, the Balearic Islands hold the largest deficit, amounting to roughly 7% of the housing stock. The director of UVE Valuations also points out that in less prominent areas like Álava, the deficit is around 4.5%. Nineteen locales show meaningful gaps in housing, while others present a more balanced picture. In several regions where demand remains modest, the surplus is pronounced — these are places where new construction is unlikely to be financially viable for the next decade and beyond.
A notable pattern emerges: cities with shrinking populations or regions affected by what residents describe as a “Spain Evacuated” trend tend to have more homes than people. In zones with a surplus exceeding 10% of the built stock, the firm’s head suggests a slowdown or pause in construction in the near term. For example, Ourense stands out for having the highest share of unneeded homes, at about 12.5% of its census. Ferrol follows with roughly 11,800 surplus units, Ciudad Real with 6,400, and Ponferrada with around 5,000. Provincially, places such as Ciudad Real, Toledo, and León display comparatively smaller deficits in the context of broader national variation.
Prices rise where housing is scarce and vacancies are low
The report explains how the balance of vacant homes, housing demand, and price levels interact. The central takeaway is straightforward: regions with tighter vacancy rates and persistent shortages tend to see higher prices. Madrid and Gipuzkoa are cited as examples, ranking among the top five regions for price levels while simultaneously reporting limited unused housing stock. By contrast, Ourense shows a different dynamic: only about half of its construction properties are occupied, and prices there are among the lowest in the country.
Vacancy trends also align with price movements. In Málaga and the Balearic Islands, vacancies rose alongside price growth — roughly 17.6% and 16.6% respectively from 2010 to 2020 — accompanied by a 4.3% increase in vacancy rates in those areas. In Zamora, the opposite occurred: unemployment rose, and prices declined by almost 5%.
These patterns highlight how regional factors shape the housing market across Spain. Buyers and developers should consider not only the present stock but also how vacancy, population shifts, and regional economic conditions interact to influence price trajectories over time. (Source: UVE Valuations)