Industry leaders in Spain push back on a wholesale shift from the current boiler fleet to heat pumps as the main path to residential decarbonisation. They argue the move will not fail because of technical barriers, but because it is not the most cost effective option for Spain’s building stock and economic context, with an estimated price tag around 201,314 million euros.
A study prepared by Sedigás in collaboration with Arthur D. Little evaluated replacing the existing boiler fleet—roughly 11.1 million units, including 8.9 million atmospheric boilers and 2.2 million condensing models—would require public expenditure on aerothermal energy that is about twice the investment needed to upgrade to high efficiency gas boilers. They note that installing a heat pump carries an upfront cost near 18,000 euros, which would overwhelm the average net disposable income by more than 90 percent.
They also point out that electrifying heating with heat pumps would require a substantial expansion of electricity infrastructure, effectively doubling the current distribution network to support the growth.
The Spanish residential sector already begins from a different baseline than many European peers, using less energy than the European average—about 17 percent of total energy use versus 40 percent elsewhere—and roughly 40 percent of that total goes to heating. The association estimates homes account for 12–15 percent of total emissions, compared with about 36 percent across the rest of the continent.
At a press conference, Sedigás president Joan Batalla framed decarbonisation as an energy efficiency issue in home heating. He advocated prioritising equipment renewal and the integration of renewable gases, highlighting Spain’s potential for biomethane, which could decarbonise most heating demand. He also suggested there may be no need to replace every existing appliance or rely exclusively on new condensing boilers. He even mentioned a potential role for hydrogen in the mix.
Biomethane potential
Industry data indicate Spain could produce around 163 terawatt hours per year of biomethane, a quantity capable of meeting the nation’s entire domestic gas demand.
The sector argues there is no single silver bullet for decarbonising home heating. A technology neutral approach should guide policy, keeping all renewable options on the table. The renewable character of a heating system depends on the fuel used, not the technology itself. Electrification should not be assumed as the only route to decarbonisation.
The gas sector does not dismiss heat pumps outright. They could suit homes with higher disposable incomes and certain building layouts, such as some Northern European cities. In Spain, practical constraints related to space make broad aerothermal adoption difficult.
Overall, the discussion emphasizes that decarbonising heating requires a nuanced strategy that considers housing stock, household finances, grid capacity, and the broader energy mix. It supports a balanced portfolio approach: improving energy efficiency, renewing equipment, and leveraging renewable gases like biomethane, while recognizing the conditions that limit certain technologies in Spain.
At the core of the debate lies a practical assessment of costs, infrastructure needs, and the country’s unique building landscape. The aim is to choose options that deliver real decarbonisation results without placing undue financial pressure on households or demanding unsustainable investments in electrical infrastructure. This conversation mirrors a wider European trend: decarbonisation must align with local realities, keep energy security intact, and respect economic constraints while preserving multiple renewable pathways to meet heating demand.