Rise of renewable energies marks a year with historically low greenhouse gas emissions in Spain. The country registered 271.6 MtCO2-eq, a 7.5% drop from the 283.8 MtCO2-eq recorded the previous year. This downturn is viewed as a hopeful sign for future decarbonization of the economy and climate action, according to a joint study by the Basque Center for Climate Change BC3 and the Observatory for Energy Transition and Climate Action OTEA.
In addition, the report notes that this decline comes as the gross domestic product is expected to rise by more than 2%. Emissions are described as continuing to fall sharply, reinforcing the study’s assessment in its conclusion on improved greenhouse gas emissions in Spain for 2023.
By year end, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to reach the lowest point in the historical series that begins in 1990, dipping below 2020 levels when emissions fell by 12 percent due to mobility restrictions during the pandemic. Emissions are also anticipated to be well below 1990 levels, by about 5.6 percent.
Despite the improvement, Spain’s National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan PNIEC targets a portfolio of reductions: a 23% cut by 2030 compared with 1990, with a recent plan update aiming to lift this target to 32%. The BC3-OTEA study emphasizes that substantial work remains over the next seven years and calls for sustained, higher rates of emission reductions.
Decrease in exports
The electricity sector was the main contributor to the year’s emission reductions. After 2022, when emissions rose due to higher exports and more frequent use of combined cycles amid drought, this year saw emissions returning to 2021 levels. This shift helped curb natural gas and coal use, while renewables continued to rise, leading to a notable reduction in net exports and a partial recovery of hydroelectric production thanks to rainfall.
Wind generation rose modestly, but solar photovoltaics led the renewables surge, suggesting that renewables could account for about half of electricity production this year. The year’s renewable output is set to surpass 135,000 GWh, a new historical high.
The energy mix for the year shows wind at the forefront with an approximate 24% share and around 63,700 GWh of production. Nuclear energy is expected to contribute about 20% of output. Combined cycle plants rank third with around 17%, followed by photovoltaic at about 14%, yielding more than 37,000 GWh and a growth near 34% from 2022. Hydraulics join with roughly 9.5% of the mix, equaling about 25,500 GWh; this is higher than 2022, a dry year that limited hydro output.
Less optimistic for 2024
The report’s results point to ongoing pressure from the energy crisis that began in 2022 and its effect on energy prices, especially natural gas, which may help explain the evolution of natural gas consumption in the year. In the first quarter, industry, households, and services continued to reduce gas use, yet a shift in the summer suggests the trend may temper. The study credits the authors with careful analysis of 2023 performance.
The report highlights that an easing of natural gas prices helped consumption recover as the year progressed. Despite a neutral balance overall, the uptick in emissions in the second half leads the authors to admit a more cautious outlook for 2024.
The transportation sector again shows troubling trends, with oil derivative emissions expected to fall only slightly. The document notes that transportation does not appear to have significantly contributed to the annual decline.
Air transport data remain a concern, with kerosene use rising by about 12%. In a context of relatively high fuel costs and continued subsidies for public transport, emissions in this sector show limited improvement.
Reference study available in the BC3/OTEA repository marked with attribution to the institutions responsible for the research.
… Ends of summary notes with a final line indicating the report’s formal documentation.