Spain, defense spending, and the 2 percent target
Eight years have passed since the 2 percent of GDP pledge was announced at the 2014 Cardiff Summit. Since then, the two national leaders who steered Spain through that period, Mariano Rajoy and Pedro Sánchez, have not delivered on the pledge. The goal has often read more as an aspirational aim than a binding obligation, even as debates about security and alliance commitments grow sharper in a changing international environment.
The current urgency around defense spending has intensified in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Questions about collective security, burden sharing, and the level of commitment from allies have resurfaced among key partners, including Britain. Spain now faces increased pressure to lay out a clear path toward higher defense investments and a more explicit timetable for future growth.
How much has been spent on defense?
Different authorities report different totals. For 2021, the last year cross-checked by both the Ministry of Defense and NATO, Spain’s General Government Budget listed 9.412 billion euros for defense, equivalent to 0.78 percent of GDP. In contrast, the military agency reported 12.208 billion euros, or 1.03 percent of GDP. The gap stems from whether certain external organizations are counted in the totals. The discrepancy highlights how budgeting practices and scope can shape the apparent size of defense outlays.
How much is planned for 2022?
The latest General Government Budget suggests a strong uptick in defense spending, with the ministry indicating an increase to 7.9 percent of the budget, yielding about 10.155 billion euros in 2022, roughly 0.8 percent of GDP. NATO’s most recent figures show a higher allocation for 2022 at 13.136 billion euros, or about 1.01 percent of GDP. This divergence reflects different accounting approaches and the inclusion or exclusion of certain programs and agencies.
When might the 2 percent target be reached?
Prime Minister Sánchez has repeatedly indicated an aim to reach 2 percent in the coming years, but a precise timetable has not been set. Within government circles, and supported by NATO estimates that tend to be optimistic relative to budgetary projections, the outlook appears to center on the late 2020s, with a common reference around 2029. Achieving this would require substantial and sustained increases in defense spending. Some NATO calculations estimate that roughly 11 billion euros more would be needed over the next seven years to reach a level near 24 billion euros in defense investments.
Has the 2 percent target ever been reached?
The target has not been met since the Cardiff Summit in 2014. At that moment, Spain allocated about 5.743 billion euros to defense, approximately 0.55 percent of GDP according to ministry figures. Historical data show a low point around 0.52 percent of GDP in 2016, with 5.785 billion euros. The following year, 2017, brought a modest uptick to 7.635 billion euros and roughly 0.66 percent of GDP. While spending has risen in subsequent years, the 2 percent mark remained out of reach. The increases reflect shifting defense priorities and ongoing scrutiny of allied commitments, rather than a fixed commitment achieved.
Experts say Spain’s defense investments are closely tied to broader budget choices, alliance expectations, and geopolitical developments. The numbers underscore a broader debate over whether defense spending should be pegged to a fixed percentage of GDP or guided by evolving security needs and deterrence requirements as perceived by NATO and partner nations. Analysts call for transparent budgeting, consistent reporting standards, and clear milestones to assess progress toward the 2 percent objective. This discussion centers on balancing national fiscal policy with collective security obligations, ensuring that defense capabilities align with contemporary threats and Spain’s alliance responsibilities.
Looking ahead, observers will watch how the defense budget evolves within the overall fiscal plan and whether the 2 percent benchmark becomes a rigid line or a flexible target shaped by real security needs and alliance expectations. The path will rely on clearer reporting, disciplined budgeting, and credible milestones that translate political commitments into tangible defense capacity and credible deterrence for Spain’s allies.
Sources and data points cited here come from official budget documents and NATO analyses. Attribution reflects the diverse methodologies used by Spain’s government and alliance partners to measure defense outlays and to interpret what constitutes defense investments in the broader fiscal framework.