The crisis began to be felt by consumers as forecasts and opinions circulated about when it would start and finish. Ignacio González, president of AECOC, the association of manufacturers and distributors, suggested a forward-looking stance, while authorities in Europe and Spain provided growth projections and consumer confidence indicators for April. Easter left a marked impact on purchasing patterns, with food industry dynamics showing a retreat after months of relative stability as consumption trends shifted once more.
Algoris, a data analytics firm that recently launched its platform, reports a notable uptick in the volume of goods purchased in supermarkets from mid-March through the week of April 10, the Easter Monday holiday, followed by a new decline that has not reversed since. In early May, 6 percent fewer items were bought in supermarkets compared with the same week a year earlier, and even with inflation at about 7.5 percent, average spending per shopping cart also fell, signaling softer consumer demand despite price pressures.
HE Aldi Fresco Observatory, based largely on April surveys, found that around 60 percent of consumers reduced purchases of fresh produce at supermarkets, including bread, deli items, eggs, meat, fish, fruit, and vegetables. The data aligns with AECOC, which reported that by the end of April nearly half of shoppers said they bought less meat while about four in ten cut back on fish purchases.
Brake card spending
The broader picture shows the decline extending beyond food. BBVA Research analyzed consumption behavior and observed a downward trend from the first week of April, reaching a low not seen since January 2022 when annual consumption had contracted by 7.8 percent. By the first days of May, overall consumption remained roughly 6 percent below the previous year, with a subtle improvement in the latest data.
Caixabank Research also notes a three percent drop in detected card payments by Spanish buyers at the end of April, with some recovery in May that did not extend further. A closer look at face-to-face card usage reveals a healthier growth rate of about nine percent year over year, providing a hopeful signal amid otherwise muted records in April. The economist from Caixabank Research emphasizes that spending patterns across sectors have continued to shift, with tourism and leisure showing pockets of strength while traditional retail lags.
Tourism-related spending, especially on foreign cards, has helped soften the overall downturn. The increase in foreign-card expenditures has ranged from thirteen to forty-eight percent since the start of the year, underscoring the influence of external demand on national consumption.
Consumption polarization
Polarization remains pronounced. Some households are maintaining or increasing spending, while others face tighter budgets and rising costs. Nuria Beltran, chair of the Retail Commission at the Col·legi d’Economistes de Catalunya, notes that the decline in consumption is plausible given that roughly half of the population reports difficulties making ends meet. The macro picture may show signs of improvement if tourism and the third sector continue to perform, but the micro picture reveals ongoing strain. Wages have lagged behind price rises, leaving domestic consumption particularly vulnerable to electricity, fuel, and food costs.
In the retail space, textiles, beauty products, and the bar and restaurant sectors display divergent trajectories. The textile industry has regained some ground after pandemic-induced losses, yet the pace remains uneven. Beauty products are enjoying strong momentum, while the hospitality sector continues to wrestle with softer conditions and budget-conscious consumers who still manage to seek experiences, albeit more cautiously. In many establishments, operators report cost-conscious customers and a more careful approach to spending.