Spain faces a persistently low birth rate, a trend that shadows the country as it records the highest share of first-time mothers aged 40 and over within the European Union. Eurostat data place Spain among nations where fertility is a pressing challenge, with Romania, Lithuania, and Slovakia often cited nearby, followed by Greece, Italy, and Portugal. The latest figures from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) show a 23.1% decline in births over the past decade and a 2% drop in 2023. This is not a sudden shift; the consequences are already visible in society, particularly as pension systems strain under a shrinking workforce. As older generations retire, a thinner base of younger workers must keep the system afloat. The broad mix of factors behind this trend includes employment realities, with job insecurity and limited flexibility pushing many women away from parenthood, especially college graduates who fear losing their jobs.
Researchers have highlighted several structural pressures contributing to the low birth rate. Virginia Sánchez, author of the Birth and Institutions report published by the Savings Banks Foundation, points to labor instability driven by temporary contracts and high unemployment as a key issue for Spanish families. The country also exhibits high incidence of split shifts and a strong workplace presence that complicates co-parenting. The adoption of flexible work arrangements, including remote work, has not delivered the hoped-for gains: in 2022, only 12.6% of women worked remotely, according to the National Observatory on Technology and Society. These patterns intersect with broader policy and social barriers that affect family formation and child-rearing choices.
Beyond employment, Sánchez notes that aid for families with children and public spending on early childhood education are comparatively limited. Access to housing remains a major obstacle for young people, with just 16.3% of those aged 18 to 29 achieving emancipation, a level far below the European Union average of 31.9% in the first half of 2023. Rapidly rising rental costs further constrain the ability of new generations to purchase homes. The apparent desire to start a family is often delayed as housing and financial pressures mount. In addition, the unequal distribution of child care between fathers and mothers emerges as a factor that can dampen the desire to have children, according to Funcas.
Fewer people supporting pensions
Related news
The combination of a low birth rate and increasing life expectancy is reshaping Spain’s pension landscape. Experts warn that retirees will spend more time drawing pensions, while the funding base grows thinner. The Independent Authority for Accountability (AIReF) has raised concerns about the sustainability of the pension system, noting that the agreed reforms will likely widen the public deficit by about 1.2 percentage points of GDP by 2050. Projections indicate pension spending will accelerate, rising from 13.7% of GDP to around 16.3% by 2049, as the Baby Boomer generation, born between 1946 and 1964, exits the workforce.
As the retirement cohort swells, younger workers face a heavier burden, making it difficult to replace the retiring generation through a slow birth rate. The challenge for Spain is to sustain a workforce capable of supporting pensions at levels that meet the needs of aging citizens. With birth rates hovering below replacement, achieving a healthy ratio of births per 1,000 people—ideally above 10—appears increasingly essential to maintain the current pension framework. Without this balance, the pressure on public finances and social support systems is unlikely to ease any time soon, underscoring the urgency for reforms and policies that can rebalance work, family, and care responsibilities for the long term.