country potential
The national president of CBRE notes a strong potential for the Spanish real estate sector among investors. Real estate in Spain remains attractive to buyers, and the gap between new developments and older properties is expected to widen over the coming years.
Experts foresee that asset management capacity will become more important and will influence outcomes as the pace of change in building stock accelerates. Sector-by-sector, the product mix is set to broaden to include data centers, senior living communities, life sciences offices and health centers, agribusiness facilities such as farms, flexible office spaces, last mile logistics, education facilities, sports venues, and more, according to economic analysts. This expansion signals growing investor interest across a wide range of asset classes.
Solvia, the real estate services firm once part of Banco Sabadell and now under Intrum, closed 2022 with roughly 640,000 housing transactions, about 13 percent above 2021. With a portfolio exceeding 150,000 assets under management, Solvia anticipates a shift in 2023 toward more selective purchases and projects around 580,000 homes sold, a decline of about 20 percent from 2022. Still, several market levels are expected to remain above pre-crisis figures. The executive team notes that 2023 could see more cautious activity while certain segments hold steady above pre-pandemic levels.
Industry leaders observed that 2022 ended on a strong note for real estate activity, with an overall investment volume near 18 billion euros. However, the year also highlighted a trend toward more selective transactions as buyers awaited signals from the broader macroeconomic environment. In particular, the head of Solvia pointed out that many buyers paused to assess the impact of higher rates, while still keeping real estate as a key economic engine for growth. The market consensus suggests that 2023 will bring a moderating pace, with activity adapting to evolving financing conditions while remaining robust in several core areas.
Executives from major development groups remain cautiously optimistic about a transition in the cycle. They emphasize that today’s market dynamics do not resemble the property downturn of the past, and they stress the importance of continuing to address pricing, regulatory clarity, and financing accessibility. A representative of APCEspaña notes that the real estate sector should stay resilient even amid uncertainty, helped by rising demand in key cities and the ongoing need for housing supply. The message from industry leaders is clear: urban development must continue to adapt to new market realities and population needs, while keeping housing within reach for a broader segment of buyers.
Experts highlight the ongoing importance of urban land supply and streamlined permitting processes. They argue that 2023 will demand improved land deployment to meet current demand and reduce barriers to housing construction. As the year progresses, developers are expected to market substantial portions of inventory and push for faster approvals, aiming to balance price stability with steady production in response to market demand.
interest rates
One of the sector’s main headwinds is rising financing costs. The Financial Users Association expects Euribor to approach four percent by mid-2023, which would translate into noticeably higher mortgage payments for buyers and a meaningful impact on monthly housing costs. Even with tighter rates, the overall debt burden for new purchases is projected to stay within historically manageable ranges in some markets, depending on loan terms and regional pricing.
Industry observers argue that rate increases may ease as inflation cools and economic activity softens. A key banking association notes that if the economy slows and the risk of recession grows, a sustained run of rate hikes becomes unlikely. The consensus is that the path for rates will hinge on inflation trajectories and the broader macro picture rather than any single quarterly move.
Mortgage analytics firms anticipate a moderation in rate growth during the second half of the year. They forecast Euribor staying near the mid-to-high two percent range at times, with potential declines from peak levels as price pressures ease. Yet analysts caution that the inflation environment in the euro area creates uncertainty, so market participants should stay flexible and monitor the data closely as 2023 unfolds.
no flats for rent
Rental markets are expected to remain tight through 2023 due to a persistent imbalance between supply and demand. Real estate platforms report a continued decline in available rental stock, with reductions in inventory bigger in major urban centers. Demand from younger buyers and households with limited purchasing power continues to rise, while many existing leases reach renewal points without quick replacements. The shortage of substitute properties contributes to higher rents and tighter market conditions in key cities.
Analysts emphasize that this supply gap is driven by a mix of economic uncertainty, pricing dynamics, and cautious homeowner sentiment about capital commitments. As a result, prospective renters may face a slower pace in finding suitable homes, even as demand remains strong in the most dynamic sectors.
Throughout the sector, the outlook for 2023 remains influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and the ongoing need to balance affordability with investment returns. Industry voices agree that a steady investment climate will depend on stable financing, clear permitting paths, and a continued push to increase housing supply in a market that still seeks equilibrium.