In the last parliamentary term, an issue united all parties—from left to right—against the PSOE. What did Spain gain for its shift in stance on Western Sahara? Did Pedro Sánchez back Morocco’s plan to keep the region as an autonomy within the Kingdom, awaiting decolonization? The matter remains on the agenda in the newly begun legislature. Concrete results are being sought. Foreign Affairs Minister José Manuel Albares traveled to Rabat this week to gather the answers. The aim is to re-implement the road map agreed upon after the shift in position twenty months earlier.
Since then Morocco’s moves have intensified and the confrontation rose. The Polisario Front leader Brahim Ghali had criticized Spain over its Covid stance, straining ties. After consultations were requested, the ambassador returned to Madrid and diplomatic contacts were normalized. Since then, Albares has met with his Moroccan counterpart Nasser Bourita on several occasions.
At the latest meeting, held in Rabat on Thursday, Bourita argued that customs at Ceuta and Melilla had not yet opened due to ongoing pandemic-related issues and signaled that the goals could be reached in the coming months. Melilla customs had operated previously but shut in 2018 in connection with trade through so-called carrier traffic, a system both sides now want to end. Ceuta operates a new customs office. Three pilot tests were conducted at both border points to verify proper functioning.
According to Albares, everything is ready for these points to begin operating and pilot tests are no longer needed. The reopening was agreed in April 2022, when a joint roadmap between the two countries was defined. Hence, without naming the two autonomous cities claimed by Morocco, the plan is for complete normalization of movement to proceed in an orderly manner, including appropriate customs and human-control mechanisms at land and sea levels.
“It’s hard for me to see that this has very clear positive effects,” he remarked in an interview with this newspaper. José María Peredo, Professor of International Politics at the European University, noted, “From a regional perspective, the shift does not strengthen Spain’s role. Spain has lost its balanced stance in its foreign policy toward Algeria and Morocco and has become weaker in this sense. Algeria remains a vital partner for Spain in terms of energy and other aspects. Rabat’s political gains from the regional shift are evident for Algeria, as Rabat has benefited from the political changes nearby.”
Morocco’s stronger posture in negotiations followed former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In return, Rabat pursued closer diplomatic ties with Israel within the Abraham Accords framework. “Spain seems to have held back a bit in reinforcing ties between Rabat and Washington,” the analyst noted, also wondering why neither Moncloa nor the U.S. State Department have leveraged the presence of King Felipe VI much in the new relationship.
Delimitation of maritime jurisdictions and airspace
Albares maintains that all provisions of the joint declaration from 7 April 2022, following the meeting between Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and King Mohammed VI, remain fully in force and are to be fulfilled. Bourita is likewise committed to complying with and implementing all commitments.
One of the most contested parts is the delimitation of waters between Morocco and the Canary Islands, where zones overlap. In response, both sides have agreed to reactivate the Atlantic maritime delimitation working group in order to make tangible progress. No definitive results have been announced yet.
The maritime group is one of seven working groups that have been re-established and operate with normality, albeit privately. The Moroccan minister has indicated that fifteen meetings have taken place so far.
Negotiations on airspace management over Western Sahara are underway in a highly confidential manner. Spain, operating from the Canary Islands, is negotiating with Morocco, and the matter has wide-ranging implications for international law and aviation governance.
Increase in migration flows
Migration emerged as a key consequence of the renewed ties with Morocco. It has been used as a pressure point by Moroccan authorities in the past to push for tighter controls, including a major attempt by thousands of Moroccans to reach Ceuta in a single day in 2021. Albares stated in a Morocco speech that cooperation on migration is a model of global cooperation.
Recently, arrivals have risen again after a dip last year. The Canary route remains the most active, with 32,422 people recorded between January and November, according to Frontex. The Bosporus route saw a slight decrease to 13,507 since the previous year. In the broader European context, arrivals reached record levels since 2016, with a 17% year-on-year increase.
The minister defended the numbers by noting that last year had been exceptionally low and pointing to growing instability in the Sahel. He stressed that most migrants are not coming from Morocco directly, and that flows remain relatively low on the Central Mediterranean route to Italy or the Eastern Mediterranean route to Greece.
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