Spain, like many western countries, is facing a near future where retirement ages are shifting and the concept of the so-called baby boomer generation is redefining the political and economic landscape. Demographic change shows a growing senior cohort, with data from the INE indicating there are now about two people aged over 65 for every one person under 30 in some periods, a ratio that signals mounting pressure on services, pensions, and public finances. This evolving majority will shape policy debates for decades, while millennials and their successors will press for opportunities and protections that do not compromise future growth.
Recent government announcements reflect targeted measures aimed at both ends of the age spectrum. On Tuesdays, 2-euro movie tickets for those over 65 and youth discounts for Interrail passes during the summer are examples of the two poles receiving attention amidst a wide policy package that includes housing assistance and substantial scholarship programs. A table of commitments lists housing guarantees for those under 35 and projected allocations that managers estimate at about 2.5 billion euros.
Political scientist Pablo Simón from Carlos III University notes the strategic value of mobilizing younger voters. With 37.6 million people registered to vote for the May 28 election, the INE data show that for every adult under 30 who can vote, there are more than two people over 65. This demographic reality helps explain why young voters have historically shown lower turnout and why the government is considering long term policy levers alongside short term incentives [INE data].
Although most new measures target young people, the bulk of fiscal resources in this legislative period have benefited older adults through pension reforms and revaluations. Between 2020 and 2023, funds were allocated to support pension increases, with a notable revaluation of led pensions. In the period, two euros were directed to the over-65 group for every incremental expenditure aimed at youth or future investments. These dynamics illustrate the tension between immediate political benefits and long term economic balance.
Tension between short and long run
The analysis compares expense items from the last four General Government Budgets with the rise in investments in pensions, public debt and the growth of spending on research and development, social services, employment promotion, unemployment benefits, education, and housing. The focus is on items that primarily assist the youngest or represent current expenditures intended to improve the economy down the line. The debate centers on how to allocate scarce resources in a way that sustains growth while supporting vulnerable groups [OECD literature].
Policy makers argue that discounts and benefits for youth must be backed by policies that raise efficiency and deliver long term returns. A public discussion is needed about how this spending is distributed, with adults recognizing a responsibility not only to themselves but also to younger generations. Jose Ignacio Conde Ruiz of Complutense University in Madrid and the deputy director of Fedea emphasizes this shared accountability in voting and budgeting decisions [Fedea briefing].
The observed expenditure patterns show a broad trend where pension costs rise at a rate comparable to overall inflation, while investments in housing and other growth areas remain relatively modest. The pension total reached nearly €190.7 billion per year, with the indexation of pensions rising up to 8.5 percent and a maximum pension approaching €3,058.81 monthly alongside a minimum non contributory pension of €484.61. In comparison, housing investment remains limited by historical standards at around €3.48 billion. These figures underscore the need to balance current income support with investments that enable future prosperity.
Dependent family members
Analysts caution that pension reassessment should not be viewed as an expenditure only for the elderly. Every euro paid out in pensions circulates within families and often fuels domestic consumption that benefits the economy [CCOO analysis].
Public redistribution is driven by the family unit, and the distribution effects are not uniform. Some groups experience more vulnerability and others less, with Simon noting that alternate measures should account for redistributive capacity across generations. A focus on poverty levels suggests targeted investments could yield meaningful improvements in living standards for those most at risk [UC3M policy brief].
Recent studies show higher poverty in households headed by a single parent with dependent children, compared with two-earner or elder-led households. This finding highlights the nuanced ways in which aging, poverty, and family structure interact to shape political and voting outcomes. The work of political science faculties emphasizes the persistent challenge of lifting youth poverty without diminishing elder security [UC3M researchers].
Fees, pending issue
Experts interviewed for this report reject the idea of a generational war. Instead, they argue for a new dialogue that addresses how future generations will finance education, health care, and housing. A key question is whether Spain can close the gap with European leaders by improving the cost structure for younger people or whether it will fall behind. UB professor Montserrat Guillen points out that the critical variable is not just how much is spent, but how spending choices preserve room for future generations while meeting current needs [UB Economics analysis].
Other voices warn of growing competition to attract young workers across borders and stress the importance of creating stable conditions that reduce outward migration. Esade economist Pedro Aznar notes that a sharp birth-rate decline mirrors the perception of insecurity felt by many young people. INE data show that birth rates declined about 10 percent versus 2019 before the pandemic, signaling another major challenge for long term planning [INE census brief].
The labor market dynamics are not aligning with a simple growth path. Spaniards historically earn less than their eurozone peers, and the housing market shows a fragile recovery. A proposal includes longer wage agreements between employers and unions to foster cohesion, protect purchasing power, and build a stronger domestic economy. As the population ages, the risk of political disenfranchisement grows if the electoral system does not reflect the changing demographics [Eurostat labor study].
Spain is not aging in place; young voters may become numerically smaller in electoral counts yet remain highly influential when they actively participate in the political process and in the labor market. The cautionary note from Fedea’s deputy director reminds readers that the future hinges on choices today and the willingness to align spending with long term growth goals [Fedea briefing].