It isn’t surprising that this Thursday the Security Council of the United Nations will vote to extend MINURSO’s mandate in Western Sahara for another year. One open question is whether any of the fifteen council members will abstain. Gabon serves as the current presidency. Over the past year, the UN mission has documented low-intensity hostilities in the region and has reported obstacles for personnel to move freely and carry out observation missions on the ground.
In early October, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres presented his regional report and proposed a one-year mandate extension. He stressed that a political solution is still possible if all parties participate in good faith and the international community maintains steady support. The Secretary-General emphasized that progress remains linked to sustained engagement and a credible ceasefire, warning that the absence of a genuine ceasefire risks instability as long as clashes resume. He also urged Morocco and the Polisario Front to allow MINURSO personnel access to areas near the wall to document conditions firsthand.
According to the Secretary-General’s recent observations, hostilities in Western Sahara have been low-grade and concentrated mainly in the northern zones. MINURSO has noted difficulty in independently confirming the exact numbers and locations of reported shooting incidents, illustrating the challenges of verification in a tense environment.
One year of the Special Envoy
During the first year of the Special Representative for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura engaged with Moroccan authorities, the Polisario Front, Algeria, and Mauritania on multiple occasions. He also held several discussions with the Spanish Foreign Minister to pursue dialogue and transparency in a fraught region.
The report explains that De Mistura planned a July visit to Western Sahara but was informed that the Moroccan government would not be able to meet with civil society representatives and women’s organizations during that initial trip. This constraint helped shape the envoy’s schedule and limited opportunities for civic engagement during the period under review.
Self-determination referendum
The Polisario Front criticized the Secretary-General’s report in a letter, accusing Morocco of bearing responsibility for any continuation of hostilities. Brahim Ghali, the Polisario president, denounced what he called a silence and reluctance within the United Nations Secretariat to address events openly. The group pressed for a credible path to self-determination, arguing that peace in Western Sahara hinges on honoring the Sahrawi people’s right to decide their future freely.
In recent statements, the Polisario Front argued that the renewal of the peace process remains contingent on stopping violations of the Sahrawi people’s inalienable right to self-determination. Sahrawi independence advocates insist that the UN must establish the necessary mechanisms to enable a referendum under UN auspices and international supervision.
Autonomy plan
Morocco continues to explore an autonomy framework for Western Sahara. In recent years Rabat has pursued broad diplomatic backing from states that recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the territory. A key moment came when a former U.S. administration recognized Moroccan control, and Rabat has since welcomed several partners to open consulates in El Aaiún and Dajla as a sign of support for the autonomy approach.
Earlier this year, Spain’s prime minister signaled that Morocco’s autonomy proposal remains a serious and credible basis for resolving the dispute within the United Nations system. Those remarks helped ease diplomatic tensions between Rabat and Madrid following a period of strain in bilateral relations.