Seasonal uptick in coronavirus cases sparks questions about a possible peak
– Pavel Yuryevich notes that the country is once again facing a rising wave of infections, with about 12,000 new cases reported daily. Is the surge nearing its crest, or is more ahead?
“It seems we are climbing a gradual incline,” he replies. “We should expect the highest numbers in September or October, because viral spread hinges on active contact, which rises again as schools reopen and children return to classrooms. Kindergarten through university settings restart in September, and by that same period antibody levels in people who were infected earlier in the year may decline, potentially easing the body’s natural protection.”
– What are the key symptoms of COVID-19 linked to the latest Omicron subvariants?
– Swelling, a red and sore throat, and a notably runny nose are common. These signs align with how the newer Omicron versions behave: they tend to remain in the upper airways rather than attacking the lungs. The throat and nasal passages become the main battlegrounds. A runny nose helps clear viral particles, and mucus carries a mix of dead immune cells and debris from the battle. Neutrophils, a frontline component of innate immunity, help capture and break down invading pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, and fungi. This is the body’s frontline work in action.
In many cases, symptoms reflect the immune system’s defense rather than a straightforward illness.
– Why doesn’t immunity always prevent a reinfection with the same Omicron strain?
– Immunity isn’t black and white and cannot guarantee complete protection against reinfection. Outcomes depend on viral exposure, viral load, any underlying conditions, and age. This is also why questions about potential fatal outcomes with mild Omicron variants persist. While pneumonia is far less common now, serious cases can still occur, albeit less frequently than with the Delta variant.
– Looking at infection curves across countries, especially Russia, one might think the worst was in early 2022. Is that accurate?
– Not exactly. In Russia, the Delta surge caused the most severe outcomes, while Omicron brought fewer hospitalizations due to changes in how the virus enters cells via endosomes. As a result, the same viral dose becomes less dangerous for many people. It’s sometimes described as Omicron acting more like a natural booster than a pure threat.
– Which is better: natural exposure or vaccination?
– Vaccines are beneficial, but natural infection often leads to stronger, longer-lasting protection. The vaccine and a prior infection together shape the immune system in nuanced ways, but natural infection can confer broader, longer-lasting antibodies in some cases.
– Official data from Rospotrebnadzor show Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 lines predominating in Russia, together responsible for about 75% of cases. Should patients try to identify which Omicron version they have?
– It isn’t worth the effort. The two subvariants are very similar inside and offer comparable protection profiles, so pinpointing the exact version isn’t necessary for treatment or prevention decisions.
– Where could a new strain emerge that triggers concerns from the WHO?
– A mix of factors could give rise to new variants: evolutionary changes in India, plus immune-compromised populations elsewhere. While progress is underway, it will take time before a new letter of the Greek alphabet becomes dominant. A variant called Centaur is circulating in India, but it still has a long road to influence globally.
– Some scientific papers discuss how long protection lasts after the initial infection. Do they estimate around 14 months?
– That timeframe seems plausible. Yet the severity of a subsequent infection is usually not as dire as the first one. A recurring pattern emerges: more severe initial illness tends to yield stronger, longer-lasting antibodies. If the first infection was mild, protection may be weaker.
– So, should protection against Omicron be worse for someone who was infected in January compared with someone who had Delta?
– Yes, because Omicron typically causes fewer systemic lesions, though protection remains. The immune system adapts to the infection history and the level of exposure, but it does not become less effective overall. The biology here is about regulation and dose response rather than absolutes.
– Do three or four vaccine boosters continue to protect against Omicron? Should people get vaccinated now?
– It is not a one-size-fits-all scenario. A personalized approach matters. If someone had Delta and experiences Omicron symptoms after vaccination, the immediate step may be no action. If a person has recently been vaccinated and has not fallen ill, the timing of the last shot matters. If more than six months have passed, a booster ahead of the autumn season can be sensible.
– Who should be prioritized for vaccination now?
– Those who are not sick and have not previously been vaccinated, though these individuals are often the least likely to seek vaccination. The aim is to boost protection for those without prior vaccination while recognizing practical realities.
Should children receive vaccination?
– Yes. A pediatric vaccine exists, and many youngsters have matured into eligibility. Encouraging vaccination for children is prudent as the fall school term approaches.
– What about the elderly?
– Ahead of a potential autumn wave, many seniors who were vaccinated long ago should consider a booster. Aging immune systems respond less vigorously, so an updated shot can be beneficial. If the death toll is high in any demographic, it is often the elderly who bear the brunt. A booster helps close the protection gap when risk is highest.
– Is there a need to worry about the flu too?
– The flu remains a factor, especially since many kids have not had it recently. A robust flu season could reinfect parents who may have lower antibody levels from long gaps since their last illness.
– What about monkeypox? Reports of over a thousand daily infections in the United States have raised questions.
– Monkeypox stays more of a media topic. While viral infections rise during the COVID-19 era, SARS-CoV-2 remains the more dominant threat. Monkeypox spreads mainly through close contact and bodily fluids, and it behaves differently from the coronavirus family. It is easier to control with clear public health measures.
Should a monkeypox vaccine be developed now? Is it necessary?
– If a pharmaceutical or state-affiliated institution pursued a monkeypox vaccine, it would require market viability and strategic justification, potentially extending to other regions. In Russia, the likelihood of widespread monkeypox transmission appears relatively small at present.