Ryanair’s Q1 Results Signal Recovery But Caution Persisted

Ryanair has begun the new fiscal year with a cautious note on profitability, despite a rebound in activity that does not yet match pre-pandemic records. In the first quarter from April to June, the Irish carrier posted an operating result of 170 million euros in profits alongside a 273 million euro loss compared with the same period last year, a gap that remains wide from the 243 million euros recorded in the same quarter of 2019. Ticket pricing in the peak July-to-September window is described as a low double-digit rise above the 2019 summer peak, potentially exceeding 10 percent in some markets.

The presentation of results highlights 2,601 million euros in revenue, which is six times higher than in 2021 and about 12 percent above the year-ago level when adjusted for the impact of the pandemic. This jump in revenue came as the airline carried 45.5 million passengers with an occupancy rate near 93 percent, compared with 8.1 million passengers the previous year. The management notes that Ukraine-related disruptions have depressed Easter bookings and fare levels, impacting demand in that period.

Although passenger yields declined by around 4 percent versus the prior year, ancillary revenues such as luggage fees and priority boarding continued to perform well as traffic rose. On average, more than €22.50 was earned per passenger in ancillary services. Fuel costs rose to about €1,000 million, prompting the company to secure price protection for a substantial portion of its fuel needs: around 60 percent for the current year and about 30 percent for the following year.

A notable shift versus 2019 is the 30 percent higher fuel expense that has already exceeded one billion euros. For the fiscal year ending in March 2023, the company has price guarantees covering roughly 80 percent of anticipated fuel usage for the current period and about 30 percent in later quarters, helping to cushion margins against price volatility.

CEO Michael O’Leary described the current recovery as very strong but still fragile, tempered by unpredictable external factors such as the war in Ukraine and its ongoing consequences. He emphasized that visibility for the second quarter remains limited and that near-term demand is subdued. Reservations appear nearer to pre-Covid levels for this time of year, with guidance forecasting passenger volumes of about 165 million for the year, representing roughly 11 percent growth versus the pre-pandemic baseline and within reach of a five-year goal of 225 million passengers.

Debt reduction remains a priority, with the balance sheet showing a decrease of €400 million to about €1,450 million. The plan is to further reduce debt to zero within two years, strengthening the group’s position to capitalize on growth opportunities in post-pandemic Europe. The executive notes the broader industry dynamics and competitive environment as the company grapples with domestic labor actions, including strikes in Spain involving unions representing cabin crew, which have not been a central focus of this discussion.

Ryanair has stated it is pursuing agreements with unions representing more than 80 percent of pilots and around 70 percent of ground staff across Europe to restore pre-Covid salary levels, with the aim of finalizing settlements with remaining groups in the near term. The airline also announced plans to create roughly 6,000 jobs by 2026 and to invest more than €100 million in two high-quality training facilities, one located on the Iberian Peninsula, underscoring a commitment to skilled staffing and operational readiness.

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