Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary to the President of Russia, stated that the Russian economy under sanctions would grow at the same tempo as France. He described this as the pace of development during speeches tied to theKnowledge marathon, emphasizing a narrative of resilience amid external pressures.
According to his remarks, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued forecasts for Russia and France that align for 2023, projecting a GDP increase of 0.7 percent for both economies. The assertion suggests that Russia, bearing a substantial sanctions burden, could maintain parity in growth with a major European economy despite heavy headwinds.
Earlier, IMF projections saw the worldwide economy with a mixed outlook. The fund revised its global growth forecast upward to 2.8 percent for 2023, a revision that highlighted a modest acceleration in some regions as others faced headwinds. The same report noted that for 2024, IMF experts forecast a global expansion of 0.3 percent in GDP growth, a downward adjustment of 0.1 percentage points from the organization’s January assessment.
Historically, IMF projections have framed the global economy with a broad brush, estimating a 3.4 percent growth in 2022. The IMF’s 2023 outlook thus reflected both optimism in certain economies and concern over geopolitical and policy risks that could curb momentum. The Russian forecast specifically has been a focal point, given the sanctions regime and its potential impact on investment, trade, and inflationary dynamics.
On April 11, the IMF updated Russia’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.7 percent, and it subsequently adjusted the 2024 projection to 1.3 percent. These numbers illustrate a cautious stance on Russia’s near-term growth prospects, acknowledging sanctions alongside structural features of the economy, such as energy dependence, currency stability, and policy responses. Market participants and policymakers often scrutinize these figures for clues about fiscal room, exchange rate pressure, and the trajectory of consumer demand in a sanctioned environment.