Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko indicated that Moscow will strengthen its western and northwestern military potential in response to Finland joining NATO. The assertion sets a frame for how Russian forces might adapt to a changed security landscape near the country’s borders.
This scenario raises questions about how the Russian Armed Forces could counter a hypothetical NATO invasion, halt advancing units, defend key border regions, and seize the initiative to launch counteroffensives. Even though these questions are hypothetical, they guide planning considerations and strategic thinking across the defense establishment.
In a potential conflict, the Russian military would aim to repel NATO missile and air strikes, disrupt enemy command and control and reconnaissance networks, degrade air defense and missile groups, and deter naval operations. The objective would be to blunt enemy incursions from the sea and defeat naval or airborne task groups that threaten Russian territory.
Consequently, it becomes essential to envision how Western and northwest Russian formations might look in the future. This includes outlining operational-strategic groupings, defense lines, air and missile defense systems, and the broader control and communications framework. Coastal regions would require a dedicated coastal defense capability as part of the overall theater defense plan.
There are already signs of momentum in this direction. Earlier this year, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the formation of a new corps to strengthen the border grouping with Finland, specifically in Karelia and the Leningrad Region. The corps is projected to incorporate three motorized rifle divisions from the Air Force and two air assault divisions, reinforcing the region’s combat power.
Attention is also directed at enhancing radar reconnaissance, anti aircraft defense, and fighter aircraft protection. The feasibility of establishing additional air defense missile units, radio engineering regiments and brigades is examined, along with the potential restoration of aviation regiments stationed in the region during the Soviet era.
In the near term, ground and coastal formations of the Russian Armed Forces are likely to be the core elements of the enhanced force structure. The missile and artillery groupings are expected to expand significantly, with the possibility of including Iskander-M brigades and high-capacity artillery units equipped with nuclear capabilities. Operational planning would consider strikes against Finnish and Swedish targets using long-range precision weapons, leveraging long-range aviation and naval assets armed with cruise missiles to strengthen deterrence and response options.
Given NATO’s conventional military advantage, it may be prudent to maintain a strategic posture that includes potential nuclear or dual-capability configurations along Russia’s border with new NATO members. Any defensive operation would be pre-arranged with established groupings, deployment plans, and streamlined command and control procedures, supported by a coherent framework for logistics and communications. Financing these readiness measures would be part of broader national defense and security priorities, reflecting a clear prioritization of national interests.