Last Tuesday, hundreds of thousands of people poured into streets across France to protest the rising cost of living and the relatively stagnant growth in wages. It marked a second nationwide strike in just two months, a sign of ongoing discontent in a country that still enjoys lower inflation, lower unemployment, and higher wages than Spain. Yet the mood is already turning toward a chilly, proactive autumn. Will a social surge like the French movement take root elsewhere, perhaps in Spain or beyond? Mariano Hoya, deputy general secretary of the UGT and head of collective bargaining, answers with measured optimism: “Yes, it could happen here.” He notes that neither business leaders nor the government seem to recall how a single man with a cell phone in February managed to paralyze nearly half the country, alluding to a spontaneous airline protest that unfolded in a volatile sector. The piece underscores the importance of logistics in key supply chains, including the food sector, as a reminder of how protests can ripple through everyday life.
“Protests are rarely predictable in timing”, explains a sociologist and movements expert. “But all the ingredients exist for a spark. The question is when it will emerge. The 15-M movement unfolded three years after the 2008 crisis, yet since then crises have overlapped and, given the pattern, it seems unlikely that some form of disruption would be completely absent.” Josep Maria Antentas notes. This assessment frames the conversation around the potential for a broader mobilization that could mirror the pace and scale of events in other contexts.
In recent months, there have been notable clashes in various sectors, with the metal industry drawing particular attention in Ourense, Galicia, and Asturias; Cadiz also drew media focus. Still, the overall intensity has not matched the magnitude seen in France because, unlike refinery strikes, these disruptions don’t always translate into daily inconveniences for the public. Mari Cruz Vicente, who leads the action committee for the CCOO trade union, points out that while these episodes are significant, they largely impact specific regions or industries rather than everyday life on a broad scale. In France, the crisis has manifested as gas stations running dry and long queues, a stark reminder of how energy supply can become a focal point for public discontent. Spain, by contrast, reached a partial settlement in the summer when centers—amid a strike threat—reached a new agreement with Repsol that safeguarded wage gains in line with inflation and protected workers’ purchasing power. The distinction highlights how different labor environments shape outcomes in each country.
The question at hand is how Spanish unions might navigate their own trajectory. The roadmap in Spain diverges from France’s, with leaders aiming to broaden protests across sectors to maximize media impact. CCOO and UGT coordinate demonstrations and strikes where they believe success is most attainable in terms of salary improvements and workforce protection, while prioritizing the interests of their members and affiliated companies. “Strikes work when they deliver tangible gains and fair deals”, says Hoya, adding that coordinating multiple sectors to achieve meaningful results is not always straightforward.
Antentas cautions against assuming an abrupt eruption of protests, noting that France is experiencing a distinct dynamic but not admitting a full stop to social movements in another country. He emphasizes that despite Spain’s comparatively tougher material conditions on paper, there exists a long-standing tradition of mobilization from the left. The political color of the government also matters. Organizations known for street action do not respond in the same way to a center-right presidency like Macron as they would to a left-wing administration under Pedro Sánchez. Some measures taken by governments tend to be less dramatic in headlines but can still have meaningful, less visible effects. The key distinction might lie in whether public sector wages face a direct challenge in the coming months; a significant cut or lag in pay could provoke stronger public responses, especially during the winter heating season.
No public conflict
“The ability to mobilize public sector workers is a crucial factor in the French experience, and it has helped pave the way for agreements here as well”, observes the CCOO’s secretary of action in labor relations. On the same day, state officials confirmed wage settlements for public staff would rise by about 9.5 percent between 2022 and 2024, while private sector activity remains the main focal point for upcoming demonstrations. Plans across major centers include a large Madrid march on November 3, with sector-by-sector demonstrations already set in Barcelona and Tarragona toward the end of October. Should negotiations stall, organizers anticipate a second phase of broad strikes designed to bring multiple industries together under a unified strategy, echoing the French approach but tailored to local conditions.
“It is costly to reach agreement at the bargaining tables”, says Joseph Ginesta, general secretary of Pimec. He notes that the relatively limited weight of small and medium-sized enterprises in wage talks can complicate outcomes. When conditions go well, they go well for everyone; when they falter, small operators often struggle to keep up with terms set by larger firms. The larger business associations remained confident that labor dialogue remains the best path forward, highlighting the social stability that has historically defined their country. Observers say this stability could be tested if wage rises do not keep pace with inflation and workers feel a squeeze at home and in heating costs during winter.
While major employers appear unfazed by the French example, insiders emphasize that the diffusion of disruption could be contained if social dialogue holds firm. Yet there is an edge of worry: if workers see living costs rise and household finances weaken, negotiations could become more heated, and the risk of a wider winter dispute grows. The central takeaway is that peaceful negotiation remains the preferred route, but the possibility of broader action remains on the table, driven by rising living costs and the need to preserve purchasing power across the economy. In this moment, both sides emphasize dialogue, aiming to protect livelihoods while avoiding an escalation that could disrupt daily life for families across the country.