Rising Breakfast Prices: Spain, Global Trends, and North American Context
Last month, orange prices rose by five percent in major Spanish supermarkets, climbing from an average of 2.15 euros in September to 2.24 euros, according to observers at the OCU. Despite early forecasts that the 2024 harvest would be slightly larger than 2023 and would normally push prices lower, the aftermath of Valencia’s DANA storm damaged citrus crops. It now seems almost certain that this fruit will be priced higher this year. The cost of oranges and orange juice, combined with increases in other staples such as coffee and cocoa due to climate factors, has pushed breakfast costs about five percent higher than a year ago.
“The price of a traditional breakfast, composed of coffee, milk, sugar, and a slice of toast with olive oil, has risen well above the overall inflation level over the past year, which sits around 1.8 percent”, notes Javier Rivas, a professor at EAE Business School. Specifically, coffee shows an annual rise of 4.3 percent, while olive oil has climbed 10.3 percent in the same period. The figures come from the latest IPC data, covering September 2023 to September 2024, the most recent available. The moderation of olive oil prices in recent months is partly due to a VAT reduction to a super-reduced rate. Sugar and milk prices have remained stable, helping to limit the overall surge.
Special attention goes to cacao and its derivative chocolate, where global production declined due to El Niño, squeezing supply in the main consumer markets, especially in the West. Those shortages translated into prices never seen before. The latest INE data show a year-on-year rise of about 20.3 percent for chocolate and more than 12 percent for cocoa powder.
Indeed, the OCU, which monthly compiles a price list across around 100 products in eight major retailers, shows that a 125-gram milk chocolate bar rose from 1.45 euros in September to 1.54 euros in October, a six percent increase, while a 6.08-euro jar of Cola Cao moved to 6.39 euros, up five percent.
Baked goods and confectionery have climbed about 4.3 percent over the past year, while everyday breakfast items like bread and cereals have risen more modestly, by roughly 2 percent. Fresh cheese and margarine head the list of products with the sharpest October increases in the OCU index: cheese up nine percent to 3.04 euros for a pack of three 72-gram portions, and margarine up seven percent to 2.03 euros for 500 grams.
The calculations from the EAE Business School align with the international Breakfast Index, which tracks the inflation of key breakfast foods in the United States. The index does not include olive oil and does include items such as bacon and eggs. In the Spanish adaptation, it is clear that while the inflation rate for breakfast items has moderated since the peaks of 2023 and early 2024, prices remain on an upward trajectory. Rivas warns that the pattern in coffee, sugar, and olive oil signals a worrying trend that could influence the overall inflation if these staple prices continue to rise.
These insights help illustrate how price dynamics in Spain can reflect broader global pressures and serve as a benchmark for understanding trends in North American markets where breakfast staples also face inflationary headwinds.