Demography expert María Rita Testa often recalls how aging Italy tells a curious story. In Liguria, for every child there are 7.8 people aged 65 and older, and the average age climbs to 49. The professor from Luiss University of Rome notes that many children’s goods stores did not close; they simply pivoted to serve the elderly with products like diapers. It’s a striking detail, one that prompts discussions about new policy directions to sustain GDP growth amid low fertility rates. Italy currently records about 1.25 children per woman, and many young adults migrate in search of opportunity. Testa argues that a lack of hope drives this trend and that the nation must consider alternatives to keep its economy moving forward (Source: demography interviews, attribution to Testa).
Italy ranks as the oldest country in Europe. A department of the National Institute of Statistics, led by demographer Gerardo Gallo and supported by 40 researchers, has studied the trend intensively. The latest data illustrate a wave of articles across the country: the population over 65 now stands at a record level, while the ratio of seniors to young children has shifted to 5.4 seniors for every child aged 0–6. The study also notes a population decline for the sixth consecutive year in 2021, with roughly 200,000 fewer residents than the year before and a median age around 46, up from 43 a decade earlier (Source: National Institute of Statistics reports, attribution to Gallo).
no historical comparisons
Experts converge on a diagnosis: aging, insufficient family and work policies, and a gap that threatens fertility. There is no maternity benefit policy in Italy. Even if such a policy existed now, the effects would unfold over many years, possibly more than a decade, according to Gallo (Source: interviews with Italian demographers, attribution to Gallo).
Testa adds that the decline began before recent decades and that migration alone will not reverse the trend. Since 2015, Italy’s immigrant inflow has not been large enough to stop the overall resident decline (Attribution to Testa).
Migration is an important factor
Gallo notes that the situation would be worse without migrants, and that Italy’s population could be cut roughly in half over four decades without them. The demographer points to a harsh reality: more than 700,000 people died last year while births hovered near 400,000, underscoring the aging crisis (Source: demographic observations, attribution to Gallo). The trend is not purely recent; it has long roots and has become more structural over time (Attribution to Testa).
Experts trace the fertility decline back to the late 1970s, when the two-child family model began to falter. During those years, the state shifted focus toward protecting the elderly rather than supporting families and younger generations. Today, roughly 16% of GDP goes to pensions, while family support accounts for only about 4% (Source: demographic history analyses, attribution to Testa).
endangered youth
Gabriele Segre, director of the Swiss foundation Vittorio Segre, drew a provocative comparison, contrasting Turkey’s recent demographic shifts with Italy’s. In a piece for Domani, Segre warned that the 15–64 age group in Italy could drop from 37.7 million to 28.9 million over the next thirty years, signaling major social, political and cultural pressures (Attribution to Segre; Domani article). He cautioned that a lack of political engagement compounds the risk, as pension debates persist while concrete policies for youth are scarce.
Yet, there are signs of change. In recent years, the public agenda has given more attention to the demographic issue, including proposals to use artificial intelligence and robotics to offset productivity losses from aging. A notable political development has been the creation of a new ministry portfolio focused on Family, Birth and Equal Opportunity by a key political faction, though critics say the reform remains largely symbolic and has yet to deliver substantial policy results (Attribution to Italian political commentary).