Increase food by 83% and water by 8% through smarter land use
Food production currently stands as one of the planet’s most impactful activities because of how agriculture and animal husbandry are organized. However, by rethinking land use on a global scale, it may be possible to raise food output by nearly a third, conserve water, and boost carbon storage. This bold idea centers on a radical spatial reorganization of our agricultural footprint.
Researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology (HeiGIT) at Heidelberg University explored this possibility. Their work was published in a leading science journal, highlighting the potential biophysical gains from optimized land use. The study emphasizes that today’s food systems often do not align with the true capacities of our ecosystems.
Historically, human use of the Earth’s surface for food has evolved as populations grew and demand rose. While global trade enables rapid movement of food, existing production networks do not always match the natural limits and productivity of environmental resources. The result is a pattern of deforestation, expansive croplands, and irrigation of drylands that can threaten water supplies and long-term carbon storage.
What if fields, pastures, and natural vegetation were relocated to regions where land, water, and climate conditions maximize efficiency? What if planting areas were restricted to zones that minimize irrigation needs? To investigate these ideas, KIT and HeiGIT combined a dynamic vegetation model with an optimization framework to examine alternative global land use scenarios and their consequences for food, water, and carbon dynamics.
The researchers modeled land use for both optimistic and more cautious climate futures, covering periods from the early 2030s to late 2090s, and contrasted them with near-term present-day conditions. The aim was to quantify how much improvement could be achieved by structural changes in land management, independent of other policy actions.
Under the proposed reorganization, the model suggested remarkable gains: average food production could rise by about 83 percent, water availability by around 8 percent, and carbon storage capacity by roughly 3 percent. The study also found that prioritizing one parameter over the others could magnify benefits in the chosen direction while still delivering positive changes across the board.
First author Anita Bayer from KIT’s Alpine Campus in Garmisch-Partenkirchen commented that the analysis reveals spatially targeted land use could reduce conflicts by focusing on regions best suited to specific functions. The results show that some areas are better suited to cultivation, while others excel for forests or natural vegetation that optimizes carbon storage. The overall plan demonstrated stability across the modeled scenarios, reinforcing its potential viability. (Attribution: KIT, HeiGIT, and the cited PNAS publication.)
Experts note that protecting tropical and boreal forests remains critical because these ecosystems store vast amounts of carbon and support biodiversity. The study’s suggestion is not to convert all forests to farmland but to reallocate agricultural activity so that forests remain intact where they offer the strongest climate benefits, while temperate regions assume a larger role in farming to compensate for losses in other areas.
Temperate zones could primarily serve agricultural needs, reducing pressure on vulnerable tropical and boreal zones. Wide areas of savannas and grasslands in tropical and subtropical regions could be used for pasture and food production where conditions favor low irrigation. The researchers describe the land use pattern as surprisingly robust, though regional implementations will vary with local climate, soil, and water availability. (Attribution: KIT, HeiGIT, and the cited PNAS publication.)
The study also highlights that real-world adoption would require substantial shifts in land management at many scales. While such large changes might seem unlikely, climate change is already driving shifts in cropland distribution. The authors stress the need to steer these transitions toward outcomes that maximize biophysical potential while maintaining ecological values. (Attribution: KIT, HeiGIT, and the cited PNAS publication.)
References: PNAS article by the KIT and HeiGIT team. Further reading summarizes the modeled scenarios and their implications for global food security, water resources, and climate mitigation. (Attribution: PNAS.)
Note: Official study materials and future updates are held by the involved institutions. The above synthesis reflects the essential findings of the research and its potential implications for land use planning and policy development. (Attribution: KIT, HeiGIT, PNAS.)