From local markets in Europe to high-level discussions at the United Nations in New York, the food crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sends ripples across the globe. More than 400 million people directly rely on stable European food supplies, while Russia, a leading fertilizer exporter, has cut shipments due to economic sanctions. This decision is likely to affect the first major grain harvest season since the conflict began on February 24, with immediate consequences on price and availability.
The crisis is rising fast on the global agenda. It dominates talks at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, as the war’s impact on the food chain threatens both growth and stability. Inflation is widening the gap between the wealthy and the vulnerable, turning concerns about famine into a real possibility for many families.
Spanish farmers stand at their gates during sowing time, contemplating the steps needed to safeguard their harvest. Their plans hinge not only on crop quality but also on cost challenges once the produce reaches the market.
Be careful when handling bread, a farmer reflected. This is serious business. Many growers are evaluating whether to plant and, if so, how to proceed. Some may trim fertilizer use, which could halve expected yields. This perspective comes from a farm leader who notes that the decisions surrounding planting in the coming weeks will determine whether a full harvest materializes.
The rise in prices since the Ukraine crisis began has also pushed up collateral costs tied to farming activities, including energy and fertilizer prices. Farmers report that production costs have risen noticeably, with fuel costs climbing sharply and animal feed costs increasing as well. Fertilizers have surged, a factor that is not yet fully reflected in consumer prices but could become evident with the next harvest season.
With less fertilizer, fewer hectares planted and reduced output, the market could see a smaller grain supply and higher prices. The era of cheap food could be fading, raising concerns about the ability of more households to afford staples like milk and bread.
There is mutual blame between the United States, the European Union, and Russia over barriers to fertilizer exports. While the United Nations has not issued a formal statement, it has acknowledged difficulties faced by Russian producers in reaching global markets.
European diplomacy leaders arrived in New York and pressed for maintaining open access to Russian fertilizers in key markets. The narrative from Western allies centers on ensuring that sanctions do not unduly restrict essential inputs, while Russia argues it limits market access to Western buyers. Officials in Europe and the United States aim to counter this narrative during the General Assembly week.
Although the EU market does not impose direct penalties on Russian fertilizer imports, there is a broader policy concern about maintaining supply security. Leaders emphasize the risk of future sanctions and the importance of preventing a fertilizer shortage from undermining agricultural productivity this year, a point reiterated by policymakers during press engagements in New York.
The European challenge is not only dependence on Russian supplies before the war but also the broader energy crisis that gates the continent’s ability to be self-sufficient in agricultural inputs.
In late August, Europe faced a striking disruption: the world’s largest fertilizer plant, located in Norway, reduced nitrogen fertilizer and ammonia-based urea production by about half due to record electricity costs. Similar plant shutdowns were announced in the United Kingdom and Poland as a precautionary response to energy pressures that affect fertilizer manufacturing.
“Enduring energy constraints and tight fertilizer availability will shape planting decisions and yield outcomes this season”, a farming official cautioned. This situation underscores how intertwined global energy prices, fertilizer supply, and agricultural productivity have become, impacting households far beyond farm gates.