Overview of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan and Its Macroeconomic Footprint
The Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan linked to the European Next Generation EU framework is projected to channel roughly €69.5 billion into Spain. Analysts forecast that this influx will lift the country’s GDP by about 1.15 percent per year on average over the next five years. When cross-sector interactions are counted, or a drag effect is considered, the annual impact could climb to around 1.75 percent. This assessment reflects the Bank of Spain’s study of the plan and its broader macroeconomic consequences across the economy, as reported by the Bank of Spain in 2025.
In its detailed analysis, the Bank frames the findings around a sectoral perspective. The study highlights a distinctive positive interaction from productivity gains in sectors that receive direct funding. As producers of intermediate inputs and capital goods, these sectors help lift profitability across client segments through stronger demand and efficiency gains.
The assessment notes varying impacts across different lines of business. The construction sector emerges as a principal beneficiary due to infrastructure investments tied to ecological transition efforts. Sectors linked to digitalization, including information and communications and specialized technical and vocational services, also show notable gains. These effects rely on the assumption that resources can move freely between sectors and are readily available where needed, a condition emphasized by the Bank of Spain in its 2025 report.
Industries with the strongest direct and indirect gains
Direct gains are expected to concentrate in a select group of sectors, with information services, professional services, and educational services taking the lead. A central element of the plan, which prioritizes energy renovations of buildings and homes and accelerates digital transformation, reinforces the vital role of the construction sector in the broader economy.
Beyond the direct effects, most industries are projected to experience meaningful increases in gross value added through indirect channels that flow via supplier-customer networks. In particular, the positive drag in information and communications, alongside professional services and administrative activities, points to sectors most likely to benefit from the plan’s wider reach. For manufacturers and construction firms, indirect effects largely stem from productivity improvements in related transport and logistics activities.
Potential bottlenecks: shortages of skilled workers
The Bank cautions that rigidities in product and labor markets can hinder the reallocation of resources across firms and sectors, potentially dampening the overall impact of the plan. For instance, a shortage of skilled labor in certain domains could reduce the projected effect by around one-quarter, narrowing the annual GDP gain to roughly 1.3 to 1.75 percent. These figures illustrate the sensitivity of the forecast to human capital dynamics and structural flexibility.
Finally, the Bank of Spain notes that the estimates do not quantify the potential quantitative impact of the structural reforms embedded in the recovery plan. However, the reforms are considered foundational, because fund disbursement is conditioned on alignment with reform milestones and policy objectives. This alignment is identified as a priority area for the Bank, underscoring the link between timely reform execution and macroeconomic outcomes.