The global Muslim community shares a single hope for this Ramadan: end the Gaza war. As the crescent moon appears to signal the start of the holy month, between Sunday and Monday, prayers will reach a common audience. This season of reflection and charity will center on the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. While thousands around the world break their fast each day with a sunset meal, Gazans are already facing hunger after more than five months of an Israeli siege. The recent intensification of talks, brokered by Qatar and Egypt, has not delivered the long-awaited ceasefire for the beleaguered population in Gaza.
Ramadan is known for heightened worship, acts of charity, and community gatherings. Yet in Gaza, the ongoing Israeli bombardment and food shortages have forced people to fast for weeks. Families are likely to face more than one empty chair at the table this year, as the aggression has claimed the lives of at least 30,960 Palestinians. About 70 percent of the fatalities are women and children.
Regional fears
The breakdown of negotiations, set as a deadline at the start of the fasting month, has raised alerts across the region. Since Hamas attacked on October 7, killing 1,139 Israelis, violence has spread through the Middle East with daily clashes in southern Lebanon, airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, and confrontations in the Red Sea off Yemen. If attacks on Gaza continue through Ramadan, a sacred time of peace and tolerance, there is a much higher risk that the region could again catch fire.
U.S. President Joe Biden warned this week that a very dangerous situation could unfold if a deal is not reached before Ramadan, admitting it seems difficult. Iranian and Israeli officials have echoed sharp cautions. This week, Israel’s top military commander and another security official approved plans to continue the war. Last month, a government war adviser said Israel would begin ground operations in Rafah, at the southern edge of Gaza, if remaining hostages are not freed before Ramadan begins. About 1.5 million displaced Palestinians have sought shelter in tents near the border town with Egypt. Humanitarian groups warn that Israeli troop movements into Rafah could trigger a bloodbath.
Stalemates in negotiation
Aware of these risks, international mediators had hoped for a Ramadan truce. While talks could continue during the holy month, as of this report there had been no progress. The framework for a possible deal includes a six-week ceasefire during which Hamas would release around 40 Israeli hostages, with Israel in exchange freeing Palestinian prisoners held without trial. This pause would allow more aid to reach the 1.9 million Gazans forced to flee their homes.
For weeks, Israeli representatives have not attended the Cairo talks and have pressed Hamas to provide a live hostage list. Hamas officials have explained that communications outages and the presence of various local groups with captives complicate the task. They also demand a permanent ceasefire and the right for displaced residents in the north to return home. Israel insists on entering Rafah to fulfill its aim of dismantling Hamas, where the group’s remaining battalions are said to be concentrated.
Al Aqsa under scrutiny
Israel worries Hamas is stalling negotiations to use Ramadan to heighten regional tensions. Officials say Hamas remains entrenched in its position and is pressing to spark conflict during the holy month at the expense of Gaza’s residents. The head of Mossad relayed to Washington that Hamas is not seeking a deal and is mobilizing for a Ramadan escalation. A spokesperson for the Al Quds Brigades of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad called for a Ramadan of terror. Hamas has also called for a march to Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque on the first day of Ramadan. The site is sacred to both Jews and Muslims and has long been a flashpoint for tension. Hamas once described itself as the guardian of Al Aqsa and Jerusalem. The operation that Hamas used as a banner for its October 7 assault was named Flooding Al Aqsa.
During Ramadan, thousands of worshippers visit the mosque. To cool tensions, and despite political pressure, Israel’s prime minister has allowed Ramadan prayers to proceed without new restrictions. What unfolds at Al Aqsa could have grave consequences for Gaza, as witnessed during Ramadan in 2021 when clashes between worshippers and police sparked rocket fire from Gaza and a 12-day war. The diplomatic machinery remains in high gear to prevent further deterioration, but Gazans could see worsened hardships as a result.