Profiling, Data Sets, and Evolutionary Theories in Crime

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The third portion of the discussion with Professor Dvoryanchikov unfolds as a candid look into the minds of the most terrifying offenders and into the perspective that many people find hard to grasp. The conversation turns on how convicted criminals describe their emotions once arrested, offering a rare window into their inner worlds.

Nikolai spent over a decade at the Center’s Forensic Sexology Laboratory, engaging with many cases and listening to hundreds of accounts from sexual offenders. The question arises: are there many such criminals in Russia, and how does the situation compare with other countries?

Providing exact numbers is tricky because these crimes are not always publicized due to their scale and the skill needed to hide traces. Some statistics suggest that for every registered sexual crime there are between ten and seventy unreported cases. Because the range is broad, precise figures are hard to pin down. Some experts contend that the number stays relatively constant, driven by the size of the population rather than isolated events or external factors.

The topic also touches on whether female offenders exist. The interviewer notes that women are very rare in this category, accounting for less than one percent of serial sexual killers. The guest explains that women often exhibit greater behavioral flexibility and adaptability; what is difficult for a man to endure may be resolved by a woman in a more indirect and socially acceptable way. This contrast is described as a form of lesser rigidity that shapes different pathways of action.

Why might nature experiment with humans in this domain? A theory on sexual dimorphism proposed by Vigen Geodakyan is cited. The idea is that dividing into two sexes allows a species to occupy large territories and adapt to diverse environments. In Geodakyan’s view, the female subsystem stores valuable information for the population’s survival, while the male subsystem drives exploration and the transmission of traits that help survive in new conditions. Supporting this theory, data suggest more men are born than women, and more women live to old age, with males often taking on risks beyond the comfort zone. This broader variability can prepare a species for a wide range of future conditions.

The discussion then considers whether there could be times when such offenders become necessary again. It is suggested that this might have happened in the distant past, but modern evolutionary theory of paraphilia offers a different lens. Those who once helped a population survive through hard times may have performed actions now seen as abnormal, but under different pressures they could have served a function. As environments shift, human needs and social expectations also change, yet the range of male behavior remains wide. The idea is that sexual deviance may represent a kind of reserve for evolution, always present in small amounts and detectable in historical records when examined closely.

The topic shifts to popular TV portrayals of profilers who track serial killers. Viewers may see a cue from these shows when they imagine a profiler sorting through crime scene photos and crafting a psychological profile. In reality, this work involves a careful synthesis of data and the identification of patterns recognized by specialists across psychiatry, sexology, and psychology. Such analyses illuminate behavior that initially appears puzzling and frightening. The aim is to answer three core questions: who might have committed the crime, when and where the next act could occur. Though framed dramatically, these questions can be addressed by assessing the probability of various outcomes through robust analysis of the case materials.

How effective is profiling in practice? Opinions vary. The method does not guarantee a criminal will be captured, yet it complements field operations and often yields constructive results. It remains a valuable tool in responding to serial crimes when combined with other investigative approaches.

Turning to the role of neural networks and data science, the discussion reframes the topic toward data sets that contain key parameters describing past crimes and toward mathematical models that help analyze such sequences. The first major database on serial offenders emerged from the FBI, enabling probabilistic portraits of criminals based on statistical evidence. Similar systems appeared in the host country more than three decades ago, and today software exists to assemble probabilistic profiles for serial sex offenders.

How do these systems function in practice? An expert inputs known details about where and when the crime occurred, and, if a series is involved, multiple episodes are included. The result is a probabilistic portrait that can assist investigators, though it does not immediately answer all questions. For definitive answers, analysts still conduct thorough reviews of the case materials and integrate diverse expertise from related fields.

When a person is detained and guilt has not yet been proven, can markers of sexual deviance be used to make informed judgments? Specialized literature describes features that can be identified through psychodiagnostic interviews. These indicators often relate to sexual preferences and the mental imagery connected to sexuality. For instance, some offenders may display an ambivalent attitude toward women, which can appear in associations discussed during interviews with a suspect. A common example might be when a woman is seen as both attractive and dangerous, a duality that can reflect a qualitative shift in how sexual stimuli are perceived. In many cases, the female image carries both allure and threat, complicating personal relationships for the offender.

Is recovery possible? There are multiple approaches that address the complex needs of individuals with sexual desire disorders. Treatment aims to lessen the intensity of painful symptoms and reduce risk factors. While complete, rapid cures are rare, progress can be achieved through sustained interventions that gradually lower danger levels and improve management of the condition. The path to improvement often begins in childhood, making long-term commitment essential for meaningful change.

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