The intention behind the policy was solid, but the execution faltered. A government framework aimed at shielding consumers from soaring gas bills struggled to deliver, and this winter saw prices spike despite the safeguards. Among the roughly 6.5 million customers who had been in the free market until recently, only a small portion has migrated to the regulated sector. Estimates from industry insiders place the number at about 250,000. Now the Ministry of Ecological Transition is seeking a faster path to broaden reach — a plan endorsed by government sources and reported by El Confidencial as a workable formula to accelerate the transition for more households.
Early last autumn, as the energy crisis heated international markets, the government moved to cap the rise in the regulated tariff (TUR). The cap limited the built-in material cost increase, which is revised every quarter, to 15%. A month ago, the National Grid Manager took another step by subsidizing the gap, funding the shortfall with an initial €3 billion contribution through next year. The policy also opened the door to neighboring communities with centralized heating to join the cheap-rate regime, triggering a wave of requests for changes from utilities and service providers.
Presently, only a few suppliers offer the Last Resource Tariff for Gas (ENG): Naturgy, Endesa, Iberdrola, and Total Energies. Alongside Repsol, these four players account for roughly 95% of the gas market. Holaluz recently claimed the sixth position, announcing in early October that it would exit gas sales and transfer its customers to the regulated rate. ENI, Fenie, and Factor Energia have since followed suit. Yet industry association Sedigas notes that it is unrealistic to expect the top four to automatically absorb the remaining millions of high-rate customers on their own, given the scale of the task.
Sedigas has urged the government to permit additional firms to offer the regulated rate in tandem with electricity, and to streamline the transition so it can occur with a simple phone call or an online submission—eliminating the need for extra procedural steps.
One key challenge, according to industry sources, is that not every company can cover TUR with a pricing formula tied to foreign indices, such as Brent. Historically, gas imports under the TUR were anchored to these indices. Today, while Spain relies on Mibgas as the domestic benchmark, some players are wary of taking on the risk of buying gas at higher prices than the TUR their customers pay. Mibgas pricing has been on a downward trend in the past six months, which could mean substantial profits for some providers if they can maintain the arbitrage — yet the risk remains that shifts in market conditions could threaten viability.
Another proposal on the table, backed by the Ministry of Ecological Transition, would allocate the same subsidy funds used to support the regulated tariff to reduce the gap between the free-market rate and the regulated rate. If adopted, this approach would allow more companies to offer a tariff that remains affordable, though it might still be higher than TUR by a modest margin. In practice, if the regulated rate is more closely aligned with the free rate, the market would experience less volatility, potentially easing comparisons for households and small businesses alike. Should price movements in the free market slow down, the regulated rate would likely trend more steadily as well, reducing the incentive for dramatic swings.
Government officials have signaled a willingness to accelerate customer transfers even while the formula is still being fine-tuned. The overarching goal is to reach January and February, the peak winter period, with a capture-ready framework that safeguards cheap rates for gas customers while preserving competition. Critics from smaller operators, including the Association of Independent Energy Marketers (ACIE), argue that subsidizing TUR could undermine free-market dynamics and disadvantage some players relative to others. The ongoing debate centers on how to balance broad access to affordable rates with the health of a competitive market that encourages efficiency and innovation.