By 2050, half of meat and dairy consumption could be replaced with plant-based alternatives, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions tied to farming and land use by about one third. A study published in Nature Communications highlights that protecting and restoring forests and natural areas is essential to curb degradation and support climate goals.
The research suggests that shifting to plant-based proteins would unlock additional climate and biodiversity benefits when meat and dairy are substituted. Climate gains could more than double, and projected declines in ecosystem integrity could be reduced by half through 2050, compared with current trajectories.
The restored lands from livestock exclusion could account for as much as 25% of the global land restoration needed under Target 2 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework for 2030.
Co-author Eva Wollenberg of the University of Vermont notes that broad change is required beyond small campaigns. The study points toward a path for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions while advancing food security, health, and biodiversity through plant-based transitions. A full shift is challenging, requiring a mix of new technologies and policy support.
Chicken farm and equality imagery appear as visual captions for context, underscoring how agricultural practices intersect with social goals.
The researchers emphasize that plant-based meats are not just products but strategic tools for aligning climate action with nutrition and biodiversity objectives on a global scale. These transitions involve a range of innovations, policies, and coordinated efforts across sectors.
The study is a collaboration among researchers from the University of Vermont, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the International Alliance for Biodiversity, and CIAT. It marks the first large-scale assessment that connects global food security with the environmental impacts of meat and dairy consumption through plant-based alternatives, considering the complexities of food systems.
Lead author Marta Kozicka of IIASA explains that exploring dietary change broadens the options for lowering greenhouse gas emissions and could yield meaningful biodiversity improvements as well.
According to the authors, a 50% replacement scenario would substantially ease the stress that food systems place on natural environments by 2050.
What happens to the planet under these changes
Compared with 2020, anticipated changes include a reduction in global agricultural land area by about 12%, a near halt to losses of forests and other natural areas, nitrogen inputs in farming dropping to roughly half, and a 10% reduction in water use instead of continued growth.
The slowing of forest and natural area decline
Excluding carbon sequestration in protected zones, emissions could fall by roughly 2.1 gigatons CO2 equivalent per year by 2050, averaging 1.6 gigatons in the 2020–2050 period. Malnutrition worldwide could drop from 3.8% to about 3.6%, with roughly 31 million fewer undernourished people.
The dietary-change scenarios rely on plant-based recipes featuring beef, pork, chicken, and milk equivalents. The recipes are designed to match the nutritional profile of animal proteins and to be feasible given global production capacities and resources.
The research team consulted with Impossible Foods to validate the plant-based substitutes used in the analysis while maintaining full scientific independence and ensuring that the data remain publicly robust.
All environmental benefits tied to dietary shifts would be amplified if land freed from animal husbandry and feed production is reclaimed for biodiversity-focused reforestation. In the 50% scenario, land-use emission reductions could double compared with a plan without reforestation, totaling about 6.3 gigatons CO2 equivalent per year. The restoration effort would also help halt the projected decline in ecosystem integrity.
Nevertheless, the authors stress that nutritional shifts must be supported by effective production policies to capture their full potential. Without policy action, expansion of production could erode the gains in greenhouse gas reductions and land-use efficiency that such transitions promise.
Implications for smallholders and regional diversity
The authors acknowledge that livestock farming provides income and food for small farmers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. While plant-based substitutes show promise, the social and cultural roles of livestock, along with risk diversification for rural households, remain important considerations.
Policy and management responses must be swift to protect livelihoods and ensure a just, sustainable transition throughout the food system, especially in light of recent disruptions to global food security. Regional differences in population size, nutrition, agricultural productivity, and participation in international trade will shape how these changes unfold.
The main environmental impacts are concentrated in major markets and regions, including China, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of South America. These geographic patterns help guide targeted interventions and investments that maximize benefits while supporting farmers through a fair transition.
As Wollenberg explains, the food sector accounts for about one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and decarbonization remains a formidable challenge. The magnitude of potential benefits from replacing meat with plant-based options provides important considerations for consumers, producers, and policymakers alike. The study offers a compelling argument for integrating dietary shifts into broader climate and biodiversity strategies. [Nature Communications, 2023]