Olive Oil Price Outlook: Bernardos on Harvests, Taxes, and Supermarkets
Gonzalo Bernardos is a professor of economics at the University of Barcelona and a familiar voice on Spanish media outlets like RAC1 and La Sexta. In recent remarks, he addressed the current price dynamics of olive oil and what shoppers may encounter in supermarkets in the months ahead. He notes that, thanks to an exceptionally strong harvest, consumers are likely to see a noticeable drop in olive oil prices as supply expands to meet demand. [Source: Bernardos, University of Barcelona]
“What we will see with olive oil is a spectacular drop because an impressive harvest is arriving,” he states. The context is that growers are entering a peak production period, which typically eases pressure on prices and broadens availability across retail channels. This shift could translate into more competitive shelf prices for households across the country. [Source: Bernardos, University of Barcelona]
“The olive oil price falls for two reasons: the first is that the 5% tax on olive oil has now transformed, as of July, into a 0% rate,” he notes. The policy change removes a direct tax burden on the product, a move that many see as a lever to drive down consumer costs while supporting local producers. [Source: Bernardos, University of Barcelona]
“For forward purchases, that is, deliveries in December, some mills are already offering prices of four euros per liter of olive oil,” he adds. This forward pricing indicates both confidence from producers about favorable harvest conditions and a readiness to lock in favorable terms for buyers who plan ahead. [Source: Bernardos, University of Barcelona]
“Therefore, we are moving toward a situation very close to price stability, which does not mean that with the same money you can buy more, but it also doesn’t mean you’ll be able to buy less,” he explains. In practical terms, shoppers may notice more predictable prices, with less volatility than in previous months. [Source: Bernardos, University of Barcelona]
The economist emphasizes that in the coming months the market should experience a fairly balanced environment, characterized by steadier pricing and reliable supply chains. The broader takeaway is that consumers could see a careful, sustainable trend rather than dramatic swings at the checkout. [Source: Bernardos, University of Barcelona]
In summary, Bernardos points to a period where olive oil prices are likely to normalize in the near term, supported by record harvests and policy adjustments. While not a windfall for consumers, the outlook suggests a calmer market and more predictable costs for households across Canada and the United States. [Source: Bernardos, University of Barcelona]