Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI), a key economic thermometer published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), tracks how the growth trend may be changing. The latest readings suggest a softening momentum in Spain, aligning with a broader pattern seen in many advanced economies tracked by the OECD.
Inflation remains elevated, consumer confidence has fallen, and stock markets have slipped. As a result, CLI values are still below long-run trends in several major economies, signaling a potential slowdown in growth momentum. This pattern is echoed in the OECD group as a whole, where the CLI hovered below its trend line and pointed toward weaker near-term growth for many economies.
In Spain, the CLI stood at 98.83 in July, recording a decline of 2.18 points from the level a year earlier, compared with 99.11 in the prior month. Within the OECD, the CLI registered 99.2, down from 99.4 in June. The signal of reduced growth momentum appears broadly across Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and extends across the euro area including France, Germany, and Italy.
By contrast, Japan’s CLI continues to indicate steady growth around the trend, underscoring a divergence within advanced economies.
Outside the OECD, the CLI shows signs of stability in the Chinese economy, while continuing to point to steady growth for India. In Brazil, the CLI signals a moderation in growth.
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