November Retail Trade: Modest Decline, Mixed Regional Trends, and Modest Employment Shifts

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Retail trade declined by 0.8% in November, a finding released today by the National Institute of Statistics. The drop is 2.3 points lower than the prior month and drops further when compared with November 2021 numbers, signaling a pause in the economic growth seen earlier in the year.

Retail activity with the November data shows a return to negative rates after a stretch of three consecutive months of year-over-year gains. The overall pattern follows a 3.2% fall observed in July, illustrating the volatility that has characterized consumer spending in recent months.

Food sales within the retail sector in November fell by 4% versus November 2021. In contrast, sales of other product categories rose by 0.4%, driven largely by a rebound in personal equipment which increased by 3.9% and by other goods which gained 0.5%. Household goods, however, continued to struggle, posting a 4.9% year-on-year decline.

Household equipment purchases also showed a 4.9% year-on-year decrease. Across distribution channels, annual declines were recorded in single-location stores (-4.5%), small chains (-2.9%), department stores (-2.6%), and large chains (-0.4%).

In seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms, retail trade invoices fell by 0.6% in November, a drop that is 1.6 percentage points worse than October.

Sales rose 3.8% month over month

From November to October, retail trade advanced by 3.8% in seasonally adjusted terms, with the latest figure indicating a 3.4 point month-to-month increase. As November progressed, retail sales maintained monthly gains for four consecutive months, underscoring a fragile but persistent momentum in consumer demand.

When broken down by product, November saw a 0.2% month-on-month dip in food sales, while other products rose by 5.9%. Other goods advanced by 3%, household goods by 0.7%, and personal goods by 0.2%.

All distribution modes posted positive monthly rates in November except for single-location companies, which dropped by 0.7%. The largest monthly gains were recorded by big stores at 7.5%, followed by large chains at 4.8% and small chains at 1.1%.

Employment growth slows

In November, sector employment rose by 0.9% year over year, a pace that is 0.6 percentage points slower than October. Despite the slowdown, retail trade employment has still registered year-on-year gains for 19 consecutive months, signaling a longer-term trend of labor market resilience in the sector.

The strongest annual employment increases were seen at service stations and large chains, both up by 2.3%, followed by single-location stores and large chains, each up by 1.4%. Conversely, department stores reduced their staff by 1.2% over the year. On a monthly basis, sector employment edged down by 0.1%, with declines in gas stations and large chains of 1% and 0.9% respectively.

Sales fell across ten autonomous communities

Similar to the national trend, sales declined year over year in ten autonomous communities in November, while seven reported gains. Castile-La Mancha led the declines with a 4% drop, followed by the Basque Country at 3.8% and Andalusia at 2.6%. In contrast, the Balearic Islands posted a robust 5.2% rise, the Canary Islands increased by 2% and the Community of Madrid by 1%.

Year-on-year employment rose in eleven communities in November, with the Balearic Islands recording the largest increase at 5.6%, followed by the Canary Islands at 4% and Extremadura at 3.8%.

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