The wholesale electricity market has moved with notable volatility this weekend, showing a drop of more than 12 percent and reaching values around 191 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) based on the most recent tender results. This shift reflects how the market responds to supply conditions, demand patterns, and policy mechanisms that influence price signals across the Iberian Peninsula and broader Europe.
Without the Iberian price cap on natural gas used for electricity generation, the expected wholesale price for Saturday would have hovered around 241 euros per MWh. That figure underscores how much the gas price ceiling helps moderate electricity costs, as recorded by the Iberian Electricity Market Operator (OMIE) and the Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas). The cap serves as a balancing tool, providing some predictability for generators and consumers alike, even as other market forces push prices in different directions.
The final average price on the wholesale market for this Saturday stood at 120 euros per MWh, a temporary adjustment tied to the gas ceiling’s operation. This mechanism aims to reimburse factories that rely on gas to generate power, ensuring continued electricity supply while mitigating sharp price spikes. Tomorrow’s price is expected to be around 71 euros per MWh as the system adjusts to evolving conditions.
Looking at intraday dynamics, the market shows a clear hourly pattern. Excluding adjustments, the highest price is anticipated between 20:00 and 21:00, when prices could reach 146 euros per MWh. Conversely, the lowest point is projected between 03:00 and 04:00, with prices near 103.5 euros per MWh. These fluctuations illustrate how demand, weather, and grid constraints shape the daily price curve and affect consumer bills and generation planning.
Compared to the same period last year, the Saturday price appears roughly 16 percent lower, settling near 226 euros per MWh in a year-over-year perspective. This trajectory suggests continued sensitivity to gas dynamics, regional demand, and policy interventions that aim to stabilize the market while preserving energy security for households and businesses alike.
Geographically, Spain’s wholesale price level remains notably below some neighboring markets even when the gas throttle cap is not active. The differential reflects a mix of generation mix, imports, and market design. In neighboring regions, price signals show distinct patterns: France often records higher averages, Germany experiences different volatility, Italy maintains elevated levels, and the United Kingdom shows a correspondingly mixed profile influenced by exchange rates and cross-border flows. These comparisons help analysts gauge the relative competitiveness of the Iberian market and inform strategic decisions for buyers and suppliers on the continent.