On the morning of January 5, North Korea fired around 200 artillery shells into the waters off its west coast. The South Korean military identified the shells as landing in the maritime buffer zone that lies north of the de facto maritime border in the Yellow Sea. The bombardment occurred between 09:00 and 11:00 local time.
What is this buffer zone exactly? It was created in 2018 through an agreement between Pyongyang and Seoul to cool tensions along their shared border. In 2023 South Korea suspended the document after North Korea launched a military satellite, and North Korea subsequently removed itself from the agreement. The package included a ban on artillery exercises and no fly zones near the border to prevent accidental aircraft collisions, in addition to establishing the buffer zone.
In response to North Korea’s actions, local residents on Pangyongdo and Yeonpyeongdo islands were moved to shelters and ferry and ship movements within the exercise area were restricted. Seoul reported no civilian or military casualties and condemned the provocation, vowing retaliatory measures. A senior officer stated that the crisis carries full responsibility with North Korea and urged an immediate end to the provocations.
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At about 15:00 on January 5, South Korea reportedly conducted its own exercises around Baengnyeondo and Yeonpyeongdo. The operations involved K9 self-propelled howitzers, K1E1 tanks, and other weapons. Approximately 400 rounds were fired by South Korea, about twice the amount claimed by North Korea. This marked the first time since the 2018 agreement that Seoul conducted such incursions into the maritime buffer zone, with North Korea conducting its 16th barrage. The last North Korean shelling of the buffer zone occurred in December 2022.
Defense officials emphasized readiness to deter provocation. The defense minister underscored the need to be prepared to defend against any attempt to escalate. Pyongyang did not retaliate against Seoul’s drills but condemned the exercises as unnecessary. The North Korean General Staff noted that the exercises did not affect Pangyongdo or Yeonpyeongdo and reported firing 192 shells from 47 coastal guns. It criticized Seoul for shifting responsibility for the tension onto Pyongyang.
Possible conflict in 2024
South Korean intelligence assesses that North Korea could initiate military provocations and cyber operations early in 2024, ahead of parliamentary elections in South Korea in April and the US presidential election in November. The Korean Central News Agency described the risk of direct conflict as highest in 2024, and North Korea has characterized South Korea’s drills as a suicidal rampage aimed at pressuring Pyongyang.
From December 29, 2023, to January 5, 2024, Seoul has carried out joint exercises with the United States near Pocheon. The South Korean Army conducted artillery drills on January 1 and 2, and naval exercises on January 3, with thirteen ships engaged in the Yellow Sea, the Sea of Japan, and waters south of the Korean Peninsula.
China’s foreign ministry urged renewed dialogue and restraint as tensions persisted on the peninsula. North Korea explained the January 5 attack as a response to South Korea’s drills and warned of an unprecedented response to provocations from enemies. The CNN coverage noted that while the maritime buffer zone is normally a place for exercises, North Korea’s leadership had signaled a tougher stance toward reconciliation and warned that relations could deteriorate further if Washington and Seoul push confrontation. Late December remarks from Pyongyang directed military and industrial mobilization to prepare for potential hostilities.
Sources indicate that the current crisis stems largely from ongoing disputes over border regulations, military exercises, and mutual distrust, with both sides blaming the other for escalations. Analysts point to the fragility of ceasefires and the possibility of renewed tensions affecting regional stability in North East Asia, as observed by international observers and regional security experts.