Uncertainty, inflation, and shifts in monetary policy have framed a tense global atmosphere. In this climate, investors seek reliable, firsthand information about the economy and markets to uncover opportunities. To address this need, BBVA Spain Private Banking convened a gathering titled “New technologies, new opportunities” at the Archaeological Museum of Alicante (MARQ). The event brought together experts to examine macro trends and market perspectives as the year closes, and to contemplate investment directions for the near future.
The conference opened with a focus on sharing informed analyses to help better decision making. Alejandro Haligua, regional director of BBVA Alicante, underscored the importance of economic analysis forums that disseminate actionable insights. He highlighted technology as a strategic investment sector and noted that the rapid expansion of 5G connectivity will unlock new growth avenues. He also entrusted Roberto Hernanz, an Investment Strategy and Private Banking Analysis specialist at BBVA, with outlining the current economic landscape and the outlook for upcoming months.
Hernanz described the main global challenges as the Ukraine-Russia conflict combined with rising energy costs, high inflation, and tightening monetary policy. He warned that Europe is already experiencing cooling or a potential recession, with indicators suggesting a softer tone in the coming months that could extend into the next spring.
Across the Atlantic, signs of cooling were evident in the United States, especially in the mortgage market where rates touched around 7 percent, impacting home buying and selling. The North American economy had raised rates to slow inflation, yet remains supported by a solid job market and strong consumer activity, according to BBVA analysts.
In Europe, the dynamics differ. Inflation is largely imported rather than driven by domestic demand or wage growth, prompting rate increases to curb double-digit inflation in several eurozone countries. The near-term forecast points to a period of moderate cooling; once the inflation peak passes and declines begin, equities could see notable inflows.
Fixed income and variable income
Hernanz noted that global instability and volatility have produced a more intricate year for both fixed income and equity portfolio management. The aim has been to balance portfolios so that when fixed income underperforms, uplifts in equities offset the losses, and vice versa.
Looking ahead, he suggested starting to consider fixed income investments. Previously avoided by some, fixed income now appears attractive with a medium-term horizon, and recent developments have shown steady returns on such instruments amid market dips.
Regarding equities, 2023 was challenging but could evolve positively. Short-term gains may appear, while companies reassess next year’s profits. In the medium to long term, equities could be attractive at current price levels, particularly if concerns about war and inflation ease.
Golden age of technology
The question of where to place capital amid this panorama was addressed by Óscar Esteban-Navarro, Fidelity International Sales Director. He described a technology sector that has faced profit declines due to higher rates but does not indicate a technological collapse. Tech has often been an overvalued sector during the pandemic, but the future holds potential for renewed growth driven by 5G and AI.
Esteban-Navarro argued that 5G extends beyond faster data transmission; it enables a qualitative leap in information processing, density of connected devices, and productivity gains. He pointed to AI and evolving data usage as drivers of new enterprise investments and content platforms leveraging 5G. The metaverse could become a reality, with a potential market around 700 billion by 2030, contingent on the development of the essential infrastructure and sub-sectors. Online gaming, especially on mobile, is expected to grow by more than 8 percent annually as 5G enhances graphics and interactivity, closely linked to augmented reality wearables and new digital purchasing experiences. Enterprise AI and data management are projected to exceed 500 billion in a forthcoming year, supported by 5G’s efficiency and energy advantages, while blockchain and related technologies remain part of the broader digital transformation.—
Hold time was the counsel from Ximo Raga, Eastern Territorial Private Banking director, who urged investors to be patient and stay informed. He emphasized that investors should define target horizons and protective strategies, even when portfolios experience downturns; persistence matters as markets fluctuate. The discussion also reinforced the view that technology remains a critical growth vector for the future and that 5G will reshape everyday life. Raga highlighted the synergy between technology and sustainability, noting BBVA’s commitment to advancing both as essential in addressing climate challenges and accelerating progress in energy-efficient networks.
A soft cooling of the economy
Roberto Hernanz proposed an optimistic take on the euro area’s macro Outlook, particularly Spain. He anticipated a slowing economy that could extend into the second quarter of the following year, characterized by a brief recession and reduced pressure from energy prices, followed by a pause in rate adjustments. The current environment differs from past shocks such as the pandemic or the 2008 crisis. Consumers saving more and companies moderating energy use and output are part of a gradual cooling scenario. A combination of fiscal stimulus, low private debt, strong savings built up during the pandemic, a healthy financial system, and a resilient labor market are seen as cushions against a harsh downturn. The overall expectation is a mild recession rather than a dramatic one, with careful management helping to navigate the transition.