Science identifies about 1.5 million species, yet that number represents only a fraction of the living world. Not long ago Yale University introduced the Map of Life, a database showing how species are spread across the globe. With climate change accelerating and ecosystems under threat, researchers say it is essential to look farther and even to seek species that have remained hidden to humans for centuries.
Where are these species located? To answer this, a study titled “A map of life waiting to be discovered”—edited by Yale—appeared in Nature Ecology and Evolution. The researchers calculated the probability of finding a new animal or plant in different regions around the world.
This reference map, highlighted in a widely cited link, is described as a moral imperative by biologists Walter Jetz and Mario Moura, who co-authored the project. As Jetz noted in an interview, climate change is quickening the pace of species loss, and many may vanish before their existence is even known.
Therefore, the map aims to uncover hidden species, support their protection, and help prevent their disappearance without public awareness. The researcher emphasized that ignorance on this issue is unacceptable and that future generations deserve this knowledge.
To aid in the search for new species, Jetz and Moura collected vast amounts of data. They compiled information on up to 32,000 known land vertebrates, including typical habitats, geographic ranges, dates of discovery, and selected biological traits. This baseline then enabled scientists to extrapolate where new species might emerge, focusing on one of the four major vertebrate groups: birds, reptiles, amphibians, and mammals.
Eleven essential factors
Eleven key factors were analyzed to refine predictions about where new species might be found. For instance, the study concluded that large animals are typically already present, and the chances of discovering additional large animals decline in densely populated areas. Conversely, truly new species are more likely to surface in hard-to-reach locales.
Illustrative examples show the nuanced nature of discovery. Moura notes that not all chances are equal. The emu, a compact Australian bird, was identified in 1790, soon after taxonomic work began. Conversely, the tiny frog Brachycephalus guarani remained undiscovered in Brazil until 2012, indicating that some amphibians still lie hidden in the world’s corners.
The likelihood of discovering new species varies by region. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar, and Colombia are typically the most promising areas, collectively accounting for about a quarter of potential discoveries. In some cases, the probability of finding a new species in these regions reaches around 2 percent.
Very few possibilities in Spain
Spain shows relatively low discovery potential. In practical terms, the greatest opportunities lie in finding new birds in the Canary Islands (as low as 0.28 percent) or new reptiles in Castilla y León, in the corridor between Salamanca and Zamora (about 0.19 percent).
Nevertheless, Moura and Jetz acknowledge several hurdles. One important variable is the number of taxonomists actively seeking new species. They argue that progress tends to reveal the obvious first and the hidden last, underscoring the need for increased funding to support taxonomic research and expand discovery capabilities.
The global distribution of experts in taxonomy is uneven, which means this map of undiscovered life could guide new research efforts. Building on this work, the research team intends to broaden the project to include plants and invertebrates in the coming years.
In closing, the researchers contend that the map will help governments and scientific institutions focus their efforts on documenting and protecting biodiversity. The ongoing work invites continued collaboration and expansion to paint a fuller picture of life that remains to be found across the planet.
Work continues under the banner of the Life to Discover map, with ongoing updates and future expansions noted by the authors. For those seeking more context, the project is described in scholarly discussions and summarized in science journalism that attributes insights to the team behind the Life to Discover initiative.
Attribution: Life to Discover project, Nature Ecology and Evolution, and researchers Jetz and Moura are cited in scholarly discussions and news reports. (Citations: project authors and affiliated institutions.)