A global flu expert, Pavel Volchkov, head of the Genomic Engineering Laboratory at MIPT, says no person is immune to the H3N8 influenza strain. He notes that this is a brand-new variant, and current human immunity is lacking, which raises questions about how this virus behaves in humans. The World Health Organization confirmed that on April 11 a woman in China died from H3N8 bird flu, marking the first known human fatality from this new strain. (Source: WHO)
Volchkov emphasizes that there is no population-wide protection yet—no vaccines, and no historical case data from other flu strains can fully prepare health systems for H3N8. He points out that initial assessments show human activity against this strain may be limited until more is understood about its transmission dynamics. The virus belongs to influenza A and has historically affected birds, horses, and dogs; it is best known as the horse flu virus. The Chinese case underscores that there are wild birds who can harbor the virus and potentially initiate human exposure. (Source: WHO)
The scientist explains that influenza viruses typically target warm-blooded animals, and accidental bird-to-human transmission is considered unlikely unless a large amount of the virus is ingested. In most observed cases, the virus has a clear preference for animal hosts and primarily infects wild poultry. With this Chinese case, experts are exploring whether the virus has adapted enough to cross the species barrier and establish a human foothold. (Source: WHO)
At this stage, it is premature to declare a fresh outbreak. Confirming sustained person-to-person transmission is essential before any widespread spread can be anticipated. The key question becomes how many genetic changes a virus must acquire to move efficiently between humans. Scientists estimate that roughly five to eight distinct mutations are typically required for sustained human transmission. Yet it remains feasible, though unlikely, that all necessary changes could occur within a single person, particularly if there is an underlying immune weakness. (Source: WHO)
Despite those concerns, the odds of a rapid, global spread are not high. If a major shift in transmission were to occur, it could alter risk assessments for many regions, including North America, where surveillance and preparedness measures are already in place. If the virus were to gain a strong foothold in people, mortality rates could rise above those seen with some other recent coronaviruses. Still, public health authorities stress that the current situation does not indicate an inevitable epidemic, and continued monitoring is essential to detect any changes in the virus’s behavior. (Source: WHO)