NATO’s leadership is now focused on Ukraine’s security as a centerpiece of the alliance’s upcoming summit in Vilnius, scheduled for the summer. During a press briefing in Ukraine, the alliance’s secretary general outlined what he sees as the priorities for the gathering. He stressed that President Zelensky is expected to raise both Ukraine’s potential membership and the broader security guarantees Kyiv seeks as part of the alliance’s agenda items. The overarching aim, according to Stoltenberg, is to secure a decisive victory for Ukraine, with the belief that such a victory would create a meaningful basis for future discussions about Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
Observers note that the path to alliance membership remains a significant challenge. Deividas Matulionis, a former Lithuanian ambassador to NATO, described Ukraine’s entry as the most difficult issue facing the alliance. He suggested that gradual inclusion could be a plausible approach, though the exact mechanism for how such steps would unfold remains unclear. He also cautioned that it is difficult to forecast the specific decisions the alliance might take at this moment in time.
A statement issued on April 3 reaffirmed that Ukraine could join NATO only after the conflict with Russia ends in Kyiv’s favor, a clarification that underscores the security dynamics underpinning membership discussions. In late September, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Kyiv’s application for accelerated NATO membership, signaling a strong push for faster integration and a deeper security partnership with the alliance. This move has been interpreted by many observers as a signal of Ukraine’s intent to align more closely with NATO standards and governance, even as practical decisions hinge on the broader security environment and consensus within the alliance.
Dating back to the discussions surrounding the Vilnius summit, there has been an emphasis on ensuring that any path toward membership is tied to Ukraine’s ability to sustain or regain strategic stability in the region. Supporters of Ukraine argue that a formal invitation, conditional on meeting certain reforms and defense commitments, would signal a serious commitment from NATO members. Critics caution that the alliance must balance Ukraine’s aspirations with the need to preserve unity among member states and avoid creating expectations that outpace the alliance’s capacity to deliver security guarantees in a protracted conflict. Overall, the dialogue appears to be shaping a framework in which Ukraine’s security needs are addressed in tandem with a gradual progression toward potential membership, while Kyiv continues to work on modernization, interoperability with NATO forces, and adherence to alliance procedures.