Giant gathering in Munich and a shifting European security stance
He is as he is. This is a line we hear often when leaders speak at the Munich Security Conference, the forum that draws 180 leaders, ministers, and other officials from around a hundred countries. The focus isn’t only on the Baltic states, Poland, or the eastern flank of NATO. The conversation this year also centers on Donald Trump and his warnings to allies about defense spending and his invitation to the Kremlin to consider them a future target.
There is a reminder that immediate reactions from Brussels, Berlin, and Paris have long labeled such rhetoric as irresponsible. The need for Europe to reinforce its own defenses is not a new refrain, no matter who sits in the White House. As one former German foreign minister once put it, European security should be taken into our own hands. The message endures across administrations, and the call to act remains a factual backdrop to any U.S. administration change.
Germany’s defense spending has sparked debate for years. Under Angela Merkel, defense outlays stayed below 2 percent of GDP, a target repeatedly pressed by Washington. Barack Obama, then Donald Trump, and later Joe Biden all pressed Berlin to lift its contribution. Since then, Olaf Scholz has aligned with the official NATO target set in 2014, navigating a coalition of Social Democrats with Greens and liberals. In the early months after the Ukraine invasion, Berlin faced criticism for appearing to slow military support. In 2024, for the first time in three decades, Germany is projected to meet the 2 percent goal and keep it in sight. A similar pattern is expected among other NATO partners, with roughly 18 of the 31 members anticipated to reach the target.
The Zelenskiy visit, a signal to Europe
The German policy shift could carry political risks for Scholz and for the Greens’ eco-friendly agenda. But Munich is expected to affirm support for Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelenskiy will attend the conference in Munich, and he will also visit Berlin and Paris in a three-city push to gather backing, especially as Russia’s presidential elections approach in a month, where Vladimir Putin remains the likely victor.
Alongside Zelenskiy, high-profile attendees will include the U.S. vice president, Kamala Harris, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The schedule also foresees the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and the EU’s high representative for foreign policy, Josep Borrell. The United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres is slated to appear, with a broad representation from the Arab world—from Lebanon to Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. Leaders from Latin America, including Colombia’s Gustavo Petro and Argentina’s foreign minister Diana Mondino, are expected as well, representing other centers of power and influence.
A focus on Gaza and the region
The Gaza Strip is set to be another major topic of discussion at the conference. Before arriving in Munich, Scholz will host the Israeli president Isaac Herzog in Berlin. Germany continues to declare an “unlimited solidarity” with Israel, tied to a sense of historical responsibility. Yet there is growing nuance in the official line, with some voices within the government indicating concern over civilian harm in Palestinian areas. While the louder international alerts have not fully echoed across all German voices, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, from the Green Party, has begun to carve out a more independent stance within the long‑standing German position.
As one former German diplomat and observer noted, there are Palestinians with families among UNRWA staff, and not every criticism aimed at the agency is new. The question then becomes: what is the right balance between humanitarian aid and political neutrality? The United Nations remains essential to sustaining multilateralism and supporting millions of refugees, even as diverse parties contest the boundaries of neutrality in a highly politicized conflict.
Munich itself is less about immediate policy resolutions and more about the long arc of power. The conference has a history of milestones, from a notable 2007 moment when a Russian president attended for the first time. The tone in the hall can be set for the year ahead, but Moscow has chosen to skip formal representation this time around. The forum, now six decades old, continues to shape conversations among the world’s most influential leaders, even as it remains a space for cautious diplomacy and strategic signaling.