Heating in the northeast Atlantic is accelerating climate change and, with disagreements over quotas among fishing nations, the shrinking cold waters could create a perfect storm for key pelagic species. Species like mackerel, herring, and blue haddock rely on cold, dense waters to reproduce and maintain healthy populations, a fact highlighted by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC).
MSC, the global benchmark for sustainable fisheries, calls on governments to cooperate beyond borders to ensure shared stocks are properly governed and not pushed toward overexploitation by political stalemates.
In this context, the organization warns that climate change is impacting species such as mackerel, Atlantic-Scandinavian herring, and blue haddock. Warmer seas can reduce spawning capacity, trigger population declines, and complicate ocean ecosystems as well as the supply of seafood products. As temperatures rise, these fish may migrate northward in search of cooler, shallower waters.
In this context, MSC notes that pelagic species are currently overexploited by several regions, including the United Kingdom, Norway, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Russia. Their inability to agree on science-based quotas is pushing fish stocks further north as warming seas alter distribution patterns, creating a critical situation for these valuable stocks.
Therefore, MSC urges governments to prioritize sustainable stock management to bolster resilience against climate change. Without climate-aware, science-backed fisheries management strategies, the consequences for stocks will be more severe. Studies suggest that warming oceans and marine heatwaves have contributed to declines in populations such as Atlantic-Scandinavian herring, which fell by about 40 percent between 2005 and 2015.
Olav Sigurd Kjesbu, Chief Scientist at the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research, notes that offshore stocks are sensitive to temperature shifts and that climate-driven changes in distribution, spawning success, and mortality have already been observed. He cautions that rapid sea warming could accelerate these shifts and substantially reduce the reproductive capacity of herring and blue haddock. Researchers also warn that the current North Atlantic marine heatwave could foreshadow similar events elsewhere.
Previous marine heatwaves, such as those off Western Australia in 2011 and along the U.S. West Coast from 2014 to 2016, led to long recovery periods for fisheries and even temporary closures to rebuild stocks. A recent assessment from the University of California and the Marion Institute indicates that heatwaves have reshaped fisheries globally over the last decade, and the North Atlantic could face analogous disruptions.
Today, the World Meteorological Organization notes that El Niño remains active and could trigger heat waves across about half the world’s oceans from now through September. Peru’s anchovy season was canceled this year as a precaution in response to shifting conditions. MSC regional leaders emphasize the need for policy makers to integrate changes in stock distributions into long-term, climate-aware fisheries management plans.
Reflecting on the Atlantic-Scandinavian herring case from the 1960s, officials insist that without robust joint planning, fishing resources could face overexploitation, reduced catches, and even population declines with wide social and economic consequences for communities dependent on fishing and processing. The call remains to make fisheries management resilient to climate change and adaptable in the face of ongoing environmental shifts.
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Contact details for environmental authorities: [redacted email address]