Inflation continues to shape Christmas shopping once again. Analysts warn that 2023 could be one of the most expensive holiday seasons in years, with a notable rise in food costs. A 10.3 percent increase in food expenditures has been estimated by the Organization of Consumers and Users. Yet the picture is not entirely bleak. Some fish and seafood items, along with poultry such as chicken, and select premium beef cuts, are showing price relief this year. A compilation from El Periódico de Cataluña, published by Prensa Ibérica, outlines roughly thirty commonly bought fish varieties for Christmas and tracks price movements over the last six weeks. Fishermen are already advising customers to buy ahead for the New Year.
Two key conclusions emerged from this monitoring. First, Ángel Máñez, president of the Fish Wholesalers Association at Mercabarna, confirms earlier declines in several products. Crayfish and shrimp, especially the frozen varieties that traditionally feature on holiday tables, have dropped by about 30 percent compared with 2022. Salmon from aquaculture shows a reduction near 15 percent, while fillets show a smaller fall around 4 percent. Sea bass, sea bream, and cooked octopus have also stayed within controlled price ranges after peaking last October. A spokesperson for the fishermen’s union notes that the shift toward frozen products and rising aquaculture share now accounts for roughly 40 percent of sales.
The second outcome is more immediate and predictable: as Christmas approaches, prices of some fresh foods are edging upward again. Wholesalers are signaling modest gains, though not yet reaching last year’s levels. Industry members advise planning purchases well in advance to maximize savings in the weeks ahead, especially in the first week of December. In the words of Llum Ortega, a member of the fish association, early budgeting can be a smart move when seeking value, and the trend towards affordability will vary across products.
Chicken and duck are also under watch
Prices for poultry, including chicken, are fluctuating but some instances show declines. Josep Capdevila, director of Avinova and a member of the Catalan Academy of Gastronomy and Nutrition, notes that production has stabilized this year. A drop in grain costs has supported healthy duck production and better overall poultry performance. In open-field agriculture, native chicken breeds from the Catalan region, including the Penedès, are highlighted as well-suited for holiday feasts.
Overall expectations at Mercabarna suggest a total shipment of around 103,000 tons of fresh produce by the distributors associated with the central market in Barcelona. Prices in 2023 are anticipated to remain slightly higher for fruits and vegetables, which are the most climate-sensitive category. Jaume Flores, vice president of the Mercabarna Wholesale Companies Association, indicates a harvest up more than 60 percent versus last year due to drought conditions across the Mediterranean basin.
Distributors in the fruit and vegetable sector emphasize ongoing climate pressures while signaling a move toward normalization after a difficult stretch through September. They also point to efforts to guarantee grape availability by year end, acknowledging price increases resulting from the lower harvest. For other staples, prices may rise due to climate impact and uncertain harvests, with artichokes among those likely to follow the same trend. Pere Prats, vice president of the fruit and vegetable association, notes that a normal supply is expected but at a higher price point.
On the meat side, some sobering news remains for those who like to celebrate with a grand, hearty roast. Officials warn that the year could see lean availability and higher prices for a traditional, larger roast. As an alternative, tasters might consider a boneless leg of lamb, prepared in the oven with a blend of spices and herbs. Potatoes, a staple accompanying many festive dishes, are among the few vegetables that could see price relief this year.