Macron’s Re-Election, the Rise of the Far Right, and a New European Path
The re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron and the defeat of the far right, led by Marine Le Pen, presents a moment of opportunity and responsibility for Europe. The discontent fueling right-wing extremism must be addressed, and strengthening democracy within the European Union is essential to reduce the risk of authoritarian setbacks. This moment also raises questions about Europe’s strategic posture as a major power with robust military capabilities amid the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine and broader political uncertainty, including developments in the United States.
The European Union has long been recognized as a major civilian power and a model of soft power in a postwar world. This model, described by scholars like Robert Cooper, suggested that international law rather than a traditional balance of power should guide global order. Yet the emergence of China as a superpower, Russia’s use of force to defend its interests, and a cluster of regional powers that sometimes resort to repression, military intervention, or even extremist alliances to expand influence — including Turkey, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, India, and North Korea — reveals a fragile, multipolar system where power dynamics can shift rapidly.
Beyond the instruments of international law, the early post–Cold War era in the West often rested on the premise of U.S. leadership in upholding democratic norms. The notion of a unipolar moment and the United States as an indispensable nation have shaped security and diplomatic policies for decades. Yet this framework faces growing pressure from changing alliances, shifting economic interests, and rising regional players who insist on greater autonomy in pursuing their own agendas.
UN and international law
The conflict in Ukraine has exposed the limits of international law and the effectiveness of the United Nations as previously imagined. In this moment, Europe is stepping into a role of strategic leadership and hard power that asserts its own destiny while seeking the safety and well‑being of its citizens. The continent grapples with the consequences of past U.S. political shifts and the evolving stance of the Western alliance in a security landscape that is no longer defined solely by treaties and institutions. European defense spending, while substantial, remains heavily anchored to transatlantic security guarantees, and this has spurred calls for greater European autonomy in defense and crisis response. The memory of past summits and failed attempts to establish a unified European military force underscores the challenges ahead, yet recent political shifts and the war in Ukraine have opened avenues for deeper EU coordination. The French presidency has argued for a more integrated European geopolitical strategy, and a broader coalition among member states is increasingly seen as necessary to move this agenda forward. Yet some governments remain cautious about ceding sovereignty or expanding defense commitments beyond what is already agreed with NATO. A growing chorus of public figures and experts argues that a federal Europe could enhance efficiency and resilience in security, economic policy, and governance, though opinions on speed and scope vary among member nations.
France, as the EU’s most capable military power, holds a pivotal position with its nuclear deterrent and its permanent seat on the UN Security Council. It can lead discussions about more ambitious European defense and security arrangements. Realizing this potential requires alignment with leaders in Berlin, Madrid, Rome, The Hague, Stockholm, and Helsinki, and it also depends on producing constructive compromises with other key allies who may resist rapid changes or fear losing influence. An influential group of political and academic figures has called for a federal Europe, a contemporary iteration of a united political entity, to better address crises and to ensure a cohesive foreign policy. The path forward will need broad consensus and practical steps that can be implemented without provoking destabilizing backlash from adversaries or skeptical publics.
Geopolitical concerns cannot eclipse pressing domestic challenges within the EU. Citizens face growing discontent tied to social inequality, eroding purchasing power, housing costs, job insecurity, stagnant wages, tax fairness, and strained public services such as health, education, transport, and social protection. Eurostat data highlight the gaps in living standards across member states, underscoring the urgency of reform. Addressing these issues is essential to maintaining public trust in European institutions and to sustaining support for a stronger, more united Europe.
Another significant problem is the erosion of trust in political parties and national institutions. Recent Eurobarometer data show widespread distrust of political parties and governments across several countries, with fractions of citizens expressing skepticism about parliaments and national leadership. Restoring confidence will require transparent governance, accountable leadership, and tangible policies that improve daily life for ordinary people. The EU’s ability to respond to both external pressures and internal discontent will shape its future trajectory and influence on the global stage. The balance between defending unity and respecting diverse national perspectives remains a central challenge as Europe navigates this era of change, crisis, and opportunity. [citation 1]