Christian Oller, country manager for a major logistics firm in Spain, recently submitted a plan for his company that envisions establishing a Nissan site in the Free Zone. The plan reflected a broader trend in the Spanish logistics sector and a drive to offer modern two-story facilities to tenants across a site that could serve the Barcelona region. He also notes that the reindustrialization commission’s specifications make it challenging to operate a viable area larger than 500,000 square meters near Barcelona. Beyond the Free Zone issue, he addresses how the logistics industry has evolved after several record years. The Prologis group, a multinational with about one and a half million square meters of logistics platforms in Spain, predicts rents rising roughly 9% to 14%, a 30% drop in industrial developable land prices, and an end to the recent logistics surge.
How should the public tender for Nissan’s land in the Free Zone be assessed?
From Goodman’s perspective, a competitive process was launched. They analyzed calmly and presented a plan that made sense at the time, yet the reality is that the uncertainties tied to land ownership and the role of land as a strategic asset for electromobility complicate other potential uses. The strict commercial framework limited area utilization. Goodman likely sought a way to bridge these risks and build confidence in managing the land to advance reindustrialization.
There is a recognized need for electromobility support, and the logistics project was quite aligned with evolving specifications. One observer believes it would be ideal if Nissan staff could relocate to new industrial projects, ensuring protection and continuity for the industry.
Still, the target may be questionable. It is acknowledged that the process was designed by the law firm Roca & Junyent and the Free Zone Consortium as a competitive procedure. It does not appear to be a purely logistics-driven project; a higher share of industrial use is involved. If it had been strictly logistics, a different outcome could have emerged. The lands in question are specialized, and while some fear a scandal, the prevailing view is that the site should ultimately serve industry.
Are there plans to participate in the competition? The stance is to trust in the goodwill of the private sector. The envisioned project would combine industrial electromobility with logistics as a key component. The specifications allow year-by-year expansion for very specific logistics needs if the industrial downsizing becomes necessary. The reindustrialization plan has been carefully preserved.
Have other bidders facing bankruptcy threatened to file claims? There are available resources if reindustrialization targets are not met. Any use of the land not connected to electric vehicles would be scrutinized; if other product types are stored, the concerns could intensify. The firm believes the same would apply to others in the market.
Will the specifications be strictly checked for compliance? The firm remains on standby but continues to pursue growth in Catalonia, Madrid, or Valencia. The best outcomes would involve a project that blends functionality with attractive floors, yet still fits a flexible business model that aligns with real demand.
How is the current price per square meter for logistics space determined? Land prices vary widely. In some areas, like Sant Boi, prices can be around 600 euros per square meter, while Lleida sees around 70 to 150 euros per square meter. In the Free Zone and L’Hospitalet, prices remain high but have softened compared with a few months prior.
Are ship values declining? They have fallen by about 15% over the last year, with expectations of continued declines in the near term. Is this trend likely to persist? Yes, for the next couple of months at least. Asset price adjustments are in play as more flexibility is demanded from investors. A typical expectation is a roughly 30% decrease in land prices to maintain project profitability in logistics developments.
Have construction costs for warehouses risen, and does that influence land price declines? Construction costs have risen and stabilized at elevated levels, with financing costs also growing. Logistics developers seek profitability in their investments, so land prices must fall to sustain new builds. A reduction of about 30% in land cost is typically needed for a viable project.
Not all factors move in lockstep. Usable land is becoming scarcer, especially in the Barcelona region’s outer rings. Land banking needs planning and legalization steps with new costs. If construction and financing stay high, rents have not yet rebounded to earlier peaks, leaving land price as the primary lever for profitability.
And rents are rising. When space is scarce and demand remains robust, rents tend to trend upward this year. Companies paying higher rents may need to optimize by consolidating warehouses or moving closer to or away from end customers to reduce shipping and labor costs. Operating costs should not outpace rent increases blindly.
Uncertainties in e-commerce continue to influence decisions. Four levers will keep attracting the logistics sector: first, the online sales model is stabilizing; even as giants like Amazon recalibrate space needs, there is still demand for distribution capacity. Second, asset obsolescence is a factor—older, non-certified, non-functional warehouses need replacement with modern platforms. Third, repositioning of industrial facilities, nearshoring, and reshoring near consumption centers remain in early stages but are visible in practice, such as mid-sized manufacturers relocating to closer facilities or turning warehouses into production lines. Emergency stock remains a driver, lifting the need for more warehousing. Fourth, macroeconomic conditions will continue to influence demand and investment decisions, with inflation driving layoffs and lower consumption, yet these pressures are not catastrophic and show resilience in the market.
As a business decision maker, does investment pace continue? Yes. The strategy emphasizes disciplined growth through acquisitions of companies, land, or assets when the price is right. Prologis recently acquired a company for about 30 million, and similar moves are expected to continue.
In Spain, Madrid and Catalonia remain core markets. A 40,000-square-meter area is nearing completion in Guadalajara, with three potential tenants. The facility features a generous usable height and is designed to maximize efficiency. Given land shortages, the height of warehouses is being increased to approximately 14 meters, translating into significant usable space. The overall standard remains around 11 meters for many warehouses. The industry continues to optimize densities and productivity as the market evolves.
Are there parallels between the Nissan site plan and Prologis’ broader approach? The answer is yes, with ongoing architectural innovations aimed at keeping prices under control while delivering modern, efficient facilities that suit evolving occupancy needs.
Last year’s logistics boom did not vanish overnight. While sustained growth is unlikely, rents have remained relatively stable in recent years. The national market shows rising rents as supply tightens, and the overall trajectory suggests continued investment across logistics platforms and related infrastructure, even as the macroeconomic backdrop remains cautious.
Peak availability in Barcelona is scarce, while Madrid shows stronger logistics activity with higher occupancy in some submarkets. Across the country, the push to modernize warehouses with electrification, renewable energy integration, and energy storage continues, driven by customer expectations for faster delivery, reliability, and enhanced user experience.