Life expectancy may be near a ceiling, analyses show slowing gains
Life expectancy represents a forecast of the average number of years a newborn might live if current mortality patterns persist. It is one of the most widely used indicators of population health worldwide. In North America, particularly in the United States and Canada, life expectancy has followed the global trend but with distinct regional variations tied to income, access to care, and preventive health practices. As a result, policymakers watch these numbers closely to gauge the effectiveness of public health interventions and social safety nets. Attribution: broad demographic data synthesis.
In the latest analysis, researchers traced life expectancy estimates from 1990 to 2019 using a large international demographic database. This approach allowed a harmonized view across many populations, revealing how gains have evolved over time and how different groups contribute to the overall trend. The dataset helps illuminate not only the average shift in years but also shifts in the distribution, including early life improvements and longevity at older ages. Attribution: broad demographic data synthesis.
The results show that women continue to outlive men on average, a gap that has persisted for decades. The overall rise in life expectancy has continued, but the pace has slowed compared with earlier decades. In the 1990s, the global average gain hovered around 2.5 years per decade. From 2010 to 2020 the gain shortened to roughly 1.5 years per decade. The pattern is echoed in North America, where improvements have remained steady but uneven across populations, with urban and higher-income groups often experiencing larger benefits than rural and lower-income groups. Attribution: broad demographic data synthesis.
In the most optimistic scenario, life expectancy could increase by about 1.5 more years from 2020 to 2030, subject to future trends in disease, technology, and social determinants of health. This projection acknowledges uncertainties such as chronic conditions, influenza and other pandemics, advances in medical treatment, and changes in lifestyle patterns. It also suggests that the ceiling effect may become more evident in countries that have already reached high survival levels. Attribution: broad demographic data synthesis.
Another notable trend is the rising number of centenarians, driven largely by the growth of the overall population. While the absolute numbers are climbing, experts caution that the proportion of people reaching age 100 remains small in most places. If current trajectories hold, fewer than about 15 percent of women and 5 percent of men may reach their 100th birthday in the coming years. Attribution: broad demographic data synthesis.
Earlier research indicates urban residents tend to live longer than their rural peers, a gap linked to differences in access to health services, environmental exposures, and social support networks. Urban improvements in health infrastructure and prevention programs have contributed to longer lifespans for city dwellers, although the pattern varies by country and region. Attribution: broad demographic data synthesis.