A former centrist minister with a keen social media focus. A former head of a populist party who also champions immigrant rights from a left-wing perspective. He is recognized as an advocate for environmental concerns within his Democratic Party (PD) and is associated with progressive policy ideas. The Italian leader, Enrico Letta, considered every option to build the broadest possible alliance, aiming to unite groups connected to or aligned with the party’s broader formation. The goal was to block the advance of right-wing rivals and win the pivotal transalpine elections scheduled for September 25. The attempt came close to success.
On August 2, Carlo Calenda, a former PD minister and now head of the centrist Acción, announced an agreement with Letta. The headline Suicide Prevented appeared in the newspaper Domani. Yet the arrangement proved short-lived. Within days, the PD broadened its reach through deals with the Greens, the left-wing Italian Left, and Civic Commitment. In the spring, Calenda withdrew from this formation in protest of the current leadership.
The tension climaxed when Calenda disclosed that he withdrew support from the PD and formed an alliance with Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva, another centrist offshoot from the PD. He argued that the coalition was doomed to lose.
Great Right Coalition
Analysts saw the predicted dynamics unfold. The PD and Fratelli d’Italia led in voting intentions, yet the PD carried little hope of victory because Fratelli had managed to unite its factions. The ultranationalist League, led by Matteo Salvini, and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia strengthened the center-right’s position.
Polls suggested the center-left coalitions hovered around 30 percent, while the center-right approached 45 percent. This impression was echoed by experts who noted the Italian electoral system, which mixes proportional representation with a relative majority component, tends to favor large coalitions like the right. The structure makes it harder for smaller groups to break through and shifts momentum toward consolidated blocs.
Vincenzo Emanuele, a Luiss professor of political science, attributed Letta’s faltering bid to an enduring flaw on the Italian left: the clash between uncompromising figures who despise compromise and those who want to lead, even if their parties remain small.
Pragmatism on the Right
On the other side, the right is portrayed as more pragmatic, choosing to set aside differences to seize power. The comparison goes back to 1994, when Berlusconi united parties as diverse as the National League and an alliance with a party linked to a post-fascist lineage, illustrating how strategic coalitions can overcome internal disagreements. This historical note is used to explain current maneuvering and coalition-building.
David D’Alimonte points to another factor shaping the landscape. The PD’s reluctance to propose a united front with Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement after openly opposing the Draghi government weakened potential cross-party alignment. The magazine details how those missed opportunities influence present-day calculations.
Despite the setbacks, the PD leadership has not given up. In recent days, its head has repeatedly warned that Russia would favor a PD defeat, highlighting the risks associated with a victory by rival blocs. Such messaging aims to underscore perceived threats to national interests, even as other voters weigh different policy priorities.
The PD’s adversaries remain wary of what unfolds. The prospect that Giorgia Meloni could win remains a central concern for many, with observers noting that a win by the center-right would align with the preferences of some international leaders, a point raised in analysis from former and current officials alike.
Still, analysts expect that these strategies may not be enough. Even after a broad European program emphasizing digital and ecological transitions, immigration integration, job creation, and support for equal marriage, experts believe the PD faces a tough uphill climb to close the gap with the right-wing coalition. Surprises cannot be ruled out in the run-up to the vote.