Israel-Gaza dynamics and Mosul comparison in a protracted urban warfare scenario

Inside the conflict zone, visibility is limited and movement is constrained.

Across the Ukrainian front, watching tanks advance is difficult, as dense forests conceal them from air strikes. In stark contrast, the Strip around loops of territory reveals a different scene. Tall columns stand by as Merkava tanks rest in the sun, awaiting orders to push forward. Hamas lacks precision airpower and modern missiles; what it possesses are a handful of unmanned aerial vehicles that do not seem to unsettle Hamas’ military posture. The Tzeelim base presents a calm environment in the middle of intense events. This war pits one of the world’s best-prepared armies against a guerrilla force isolated for years, creating a highly asymmetric struggle. The fear is that Israel could lose some of its advantages if fighting stretches through hundreds of kilometers of tunnels beneath Gaza.

Detailed operational specifics remain scarce. Israeli infantry has initiated a ground operation that began just over a week ago. Forces have driven into two axes from the north and a third from the center, aiming to divide and isolate the Strip, including the capital where mechanized units are operating. What is certain is the extent of destruction: multiple foreign broadcasts embedded with Israeli troops show that not a single building in the controlled areas remains intact. Aviation was followed by infantry, and from the air came overwhelming capacity. It is reported that tens of thousands of homes were destroyed and hundreds of thousands of civilians were affected, according to United Nations estimates.

“Hamas makes use of civil infrastructure, complicating efforts to minimize harm,” says a lieutenant colonel speaking from the Tzeelim base. The defense minister has echoed similar concerns, describing the entire city as a single terrorist base. Critics argue that the indiscriminate nature of the campaign challenges the basic principles of international humanitarian law, including proportionality and the differentiation between military targets and civilians.

Long and complex war

The campaign has two stated objectives aimed at saving hostages and restoring safety. Authorities describe a plan that involves not only aerial bombardment but, when ground operations begin, thorough clearing of every building, every floor, every room, and every basement. A senior defense figure recently suggested that achieving these aims will require a long, demanding, protracted war spanning months.

The Pentagon had warned weeks earlier that Gaza could present a scenario akin to past campaigns faced by allied forces in the region. A reference point often cited is Mosul, Iraq, a city of nearly two million people before the conflict with ISIS. The presence of extensive tunnel networks, potentially extending hundreds of kilometers, adds a layer of complexity to any operation. Analysts suggest Hamas’ command centers and stockpiles could be hidden within these tunnels, complicating the mission for ground forces. The scale of the tunnel system, some estimates indicating its depth and breadth, is viewed as a strategic factor that could tilt the balance in favor of the defenders in certain situations. Experts point to the existence of decoy operations, snipers, and anti-tank devices as elements that will color the course of events in Gaza, potentially prolonging the conflict beyond initial expectations.

Differences between the battle of Mosul and Gaza

There are notable similarities and important differences between Gaza and Mosul. A Warwick University professor of War Studies notes the disparity in troop strength and international backing: Mosul involved around ninety-four thousand Iraqi soldiers, with significant American and allied support. Israel, by contrast, is reported to have around one hundred thousand active soldiers, with roughly three hundred thousand reserve personnel. Yet a substantial portion of these forces are allocated to other fronts, including the West Bank and the Lebanon border, leaving debates about whether the remaining combat troops will be enough to fully clear Gaza. Palestinian faction strength estimates range broadly from twenty thousand to forty thousand fighters before the current fighting began.

Another difference lies in international messaging. The coalition against ISIS conducted extensive information campaigns to isolate Mosul and attract public support to the resistance. Observers note that the Israeli campaign has struggled to win public opinion and has drawn sharp international critique about civilian harm. Even close allies have urged restraint as the humanitarian cost becomes increasingly visible. The broader political landscape has shifted as international voices call for greater accountability and protection of civilians.

The Mosul operation, which concluded after months, resulted in a diminished ISIS footprint, with the caliphate’s capital relocated and its political reach curtailed. Analysts question what a comparable political outcome would look like for Gaza. Even if northern Gaza is cleared, supporters or cells in the south could persist, meaning the campaign might continue to influence stability in the region. The current effort is viewed by many as a volatile, ongoing mission with no simple resolution, underscoring the unpredictable nature of urban warfare and political dynamics in the area.

[Citation: The New York Times; Foreign Policy; United Nations data; official statements and statements by defense officials are cited for context. All information reflects reported analyses and may continue to evolve as events unfold.]

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